Safely Back from Their Second Community Service Trip to the Dominican Republic

Their trip coincided (with a one day delay) with the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster in Japan and now, after a week, they have all returned safely.

The group, consisting of ten Bement School alums, accompanied by two of their former teachers, a spouse of one of them, and two medical professionals departed western Massachusetts on Saturday morning, March 12, 2011, at 5:30AM in the darkness. They returned this morning safely to their homes at about 2AM, having flown back from Santo Domingo to JFK and then ridden the Bement School van back to western Massachusetts.

The group consisted of students who had been to La Suiza Orphanage in the Dominican Republic as part of their 9th grade Bement School curriculum and had since graduated. It was not certain that the trip would become a reality. As you know, the Dominican Republic shares an island with Haiti, which marked this past January the first anniversary of its devastating earthquake, followed by an outbreak of cholera months afterwards.

As a parent of one of the travelers, and as someone who also does research on risk management from financial networks to supply chains, I felt a bit unsettled about the prospect of this trip. However, the joy that preceded this trip in the anticipation of seeing the boys (some are as young as 3 years old) and in planning various activities for them made me realize the significance of this return trip to all the participants.

Yesterday evening, before boarding the plane that would bring them back to the US, my daughter left a voice mail message, saying that this trip was even better then her first trip there, which took place two years ago. That trip coincided with one of my first posts on this blog.

As a teacher told us, the orphans were used to groups coming and then leaving (quite a few consisted of adults helping out with much-needed maintenance of the orphanage and school) but this was the first "school" group that had come back to see them and to be with them and they had done it because they really wanted to. The Bement School graduates on this trip consisted of students (all females, interestingly) who were now at high schools, including Deerfield Academy, Northfield Mount Hermon, Brewster Academy, and Suffield Academy, as well as Williston. They had graduated within a two year period from Bement.

Above is a photo taken of the suitcase that my daughter packed up with activities for the children at La Suiza. I hope to share more on their experiences, plus photos, after the travelers have had some much-needed rest.

Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of Japan for their tremendous pain, losses, and suffering. Please realize that, as global citizens of one world, you are in our thoughts as we all work for the recovery of your great nation. I have had the distinct honor of going to Japan several times and one of my PhD students was from Japan. The Bement School has also graduated several students from Japan.

Game Theory and Winner of Survivor -- An O.R. Surprise on Broadway

The date for the filming in NYC finally arrived -- March 15, 2011 but we were told that the part of Broadway where my interview was to take place was closed because of a setup for a major motion picture. No problem -- in scouting out the area, luckily, 42nd Street until 45th was available.

Above are photos taken of the interview, which is part of an educational program series that will air next Fall. Yul, the winner of Survivor (Cook Islands in 2006) was my interviewer. He has degrees from Stanford and Yale Law so our conversation flowed (sometimes too much, so we had to do some retakes). He attributed his win on Survivor to his knowledge of and use of game theory -- now, how cool is that?! He has also worked for the Obama Administration as the deputy chief of the consumer and governmental affairs bureau for the FCC.

We were filmed walking on Broadway in the area that has been closed to traffic since May 2009 and transformed into a pedestrian plaza. The sound and video crew were fantastic and allowed us to warm up in a Starbucks since it was cold. The entire "production" took about three hours.

Now I can tell my students that they should really study because one never knows where your expertise will take you!

The day after, the producer told me that the need to move the original site for our filming was because the Ashton Kutscher movie "New Year's Eve," was being shot on Times Square that evening.

Isenberg School Doctoral Students in Management Science Shine

It's wonderful when some good news arrives and it is especially heart-warming when the good news is about our students!

This week, we heard that one of my doctoral students in Management Science, Nathan Kollett, received a travel award of up to $800 so that he could attend the SBP 2011 Conference that will take place at the University of Maryland College Park, March 28-31, 2011. How wonderful that the organizers of this conference actually wrote grants in order to support student travel! As the Tutorial Chair of this conference, I must say that this support of students is simply fabulous!

Also, another doctoral student of mine in Management Science, Min Yu, received notification that she has been accepted to take part in the 2011 POMS Doctoral Consortium that will take place in Reno, Nevada on April 30, 2011. The program for this consortium, which is one of the events at the POMS Conference, looks fantastic and is below.

Agenda:
1:30-1:45 Introduction: Craig Froehle, U. Cincinnati (USA)

Getting Started in a Successful Academic Career (finishing the dissertation, getting an academic position, what to expect as a new assistant professor, etc.)
1:45-2:05 Rachna Shah, U. Minnesota, (USA)
2:05-2:25 Bo van der Rhee, Nyenrode U. (Neth.)
2:25-2:45 Panel Session: Q & A

2:45-3:00 Break / Snacks

Breakout Session
3:00–3:45 Participants present/discuss research plans (2-3 minutes each around a table)
Facilitators:
- Rachna Shah, U. Minnesota, (USA)
- Bo van der Rhee, Nyenrode U. (Neth.)
- Cheryl Gaimon, Georgia Tech (USA)
- Craig Froehle, U. Cincinnati (USA)

3:45-4:00 Break / Snacks

Balancing Research, Teaching, and Service (how to manage faculty's various competing responsibilities, thinking early on about a career plan, etc.)
4:00-4:20 Cheryl Gaimon, Georgia Tech (USA)
4:20-4:40 Craig Froehle, U. Cincinnati (USA)
4:40-5:00 Panel Session: Q & A.

At the POMS Conference, Min will also be presenting one of our joint papers, "Multiproduct Supply Chain Network Design with Applications to Healthcare," which is co-authored with Dr. Patrick Qiang. In addition, another one of my doctoral students, Amir H. Masoumi, will be presenting the paper, "Supply Chain Network Operations Management of a Blood Banking System with Cost and Risk Minimization," at this POMS Conference, co-authored with Min and me. Both of these papers will be in the Healthcare Operations Management track.

And, of course, our doctoral students in Management Science are busy this semester preparing for the First Northeast Regional INFORMS Conference that will take place at UMass Amherst, May 6-7, 2011. They are delighted that there will be an all-student panel at which some of the present (and previous) chapter officers of the UMass Amherst INFORMS Student Chapter will discuss how to run a successful chapter! We have seen a preliminary program for this conference and, I am a bit biased, but it is fantastic! Several of our doctoral students will be presenting their research at this conference.

Near-Real-Time Map of Japan's Earthquake and Aftershocks

Researchers at Texas Tech's Center for Geospatial Technologies have developed what is a near-real-time map of the aftershocks occurring globally following the 8.9 magnitude earthquake that rocked Japan Friday.

According to Reuters: Kevin Mulligan, the Director of the Center, said the map was developed since there was a lack of new information presented on major news outlets. The map connects to near-real-time remote feeds from the United States Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Center and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Tsunami Warning Center.

The map was constructed using Arc GIS and, according to Mulligan: "This map is a dynamic map surface that shows the distribution of recent earthquakes from a USGS live remote feed." It also has information about earlier earthquakes in the general area of Japan and allows you to view the information via different displays (topographic, street view, and others).

The map is very informative and can be accessed here.

We were given the link by a fellow Brown University grad and note that some of the best reporting regarding the evolving situation of the explosion at the nuclear power plant in northern Japan that was not cooled down sufficiently because of a system cooling failure post the earthquake is being done by Martin Fackler and Matthew L. Wald of The New York Times. Coincidentally, Matt is another Brown University grad. Their article on the Explosion Rocks Japan Nuclear Plant After Quake is a must-read. Being of Ukrainian heritage, I pray that the Japanese do not experience the same catastrophe as we did in Chernobyl. The Japanese have suffered enough.

Supply Chain Disruptions Post the Japanese Earthquake and the Tsunami

The devastation in Japan post the 8.9 earthquake and subsequent tsunami is severe (although it seems, for the most part, that Hawaii and the western part of the US have been spared).

Companies with operations in Japan met post the earthquake to assess the damage. According to The New York Times, In the immediate aftermath, most companies evacuated and closed plants. Some injuries and some damage to factories have been reported, but the unknown for many operations could be the effect on supply chain operations and on the ability to receive parts and ship finished goods.

Cargo shippers reported that major Japanese ports were closed, though the shutdowns may be precautionary. The country’s major seaports, most of them south of Tokyo, play a crucial role in Japan’s export-driven economy. Japanese exports — chiefly automobiles, machinery and manufactured goods — rose by almost 25 percent in 2010, the first increase in three years, and a lengthy shutdown could create costly delays up and down the global supply chain. Several airports, including Tokyo’s Narita, had been closed.

Recently, Dr. Patrick Qiang and I revised our paper, "A Bi-Criteria Measure to Assess Supply Chain Network Performance for Critical Needs Under Capacity and Demand Disruptions ," which we had submitted to a special issue of a transportation journal on Network Vulnerability. The paper provides a model for supply chain disruptions in which capacities on various links from production to storage and transportation are affected due to disruptions (all of which is happening now post the disaster in Japan). The objective is to minimize the total network costs, which are generalized costs that may include the monetary, risk, time, and social costs.

In this paper, we consider two different cases of disruption scenarios. In the first case, we assume that the impacts of the disruptions are not as severe and, although there are capacity reductions, the demands for products can still be met. In the second case, the demands cannot all be satisfied. For these two cases, we propose two individual performance measures. We then construct a bi-criteria measure to assess the supply chain network performance for critical needs (products that are needed in disasters, specifically).

I started this blog over two years ago for several reasons, and am now experiencing a case of deja vu. One of the reasons was that my co-author Dr. Patrick Qiang and I had finished our Fragile Networks book and with so many disasters occurring in the world, I thought it important to have relevant research disseminated and discussed. Plus, students and colleagues had been providing gentle pressure that I start a blog and it would serve as a good forum for commentary. Also, my daughter was at the Bement School in 9th grade then, and her class was about to embark on a trip to the Dominican Republic to assist in an orphanage there and I thought it would be interesting to share some of their experiences after their return. Who would know that less than a year afterwards a major earthquake would hit Haiti, which shares an island with the Dominican Republic. Moreover, she will soon be off on another community service trip.

Also, Dr. Qiang and I, based on a tutorial that I gave on the subject of Fragile Networks at the ALIO-INFORMS conference in Buenos Aires, Argentina, wrote a summary of some of the highlights in our book, and the article is now in press in the International Transactions in Operational Research. Our work has been applied to assess infrastructure vulnerability, especially in the context of critical infrastructure, including transportation, in various countries.

Will a Tsunami Hit and, If So, Where?

Many of us in the Northeast awoke to the news of the earthquake that struck northeastern Japan, making it the largest earthquake to ever strike the country and the fifth largest ever recorded in the world since 1900! The massive earthquake was registered at a magnitude of 8.9. President Obama was awoken at 4AM this morning due to tsunami warnings, with Hawaii, the west coast of the US, Latin and South America on alert. The warning has been lifted for New Zealand but initially 50 countries were notified about a potential tsunami.

The images from Japan have been striking with boats and vehicles being swept by massive waves, as well as houses, and the infrastructure collapsing. The buildings swayed in Tokyo, which is over 200 miles from the earthquake's epicenter, with airports closed, communications down, the high speed trains at a standstill, and fires raging in the northeast of the country. Luckily, the nuclear power plants were shut down automatically. Japan has an extensive, well-thought out building code, from lessons learned after the Kobe earthquake.

When I saw the news early this morning I immediately contacted my colleagues in Hawaii, a former student whose family lives in Japan (he just sent me a message that they are alright), and I even have a colleague at UMass Amherst who is scheduled to fly for spring break today to Costa Rica, another country where the alert has been sounded, not to mention Chile (which had an earthquake just last year and a tsunami warning), Colombia, and Peru. My last email correspondence last night was with a colleague in New Zealand so I breathed a sigh of relief that the tsunami warning has been lifted there since this country had its own recent earthquake that devastated Christchurch.

And my colleague from Hawaii just wrote to me: Anna: Thanks for your kind thoughts. Waves are beginning to hit the shoreline right now, and we should have a clearer idea soon of what kind of magnitude to expect.

We will have to wait, watch, and see what happens over the next several hours.

We are a global community so when disaster strikes the impacts propagate. Let's hope for the best.

Real Generals Talk Logistics and Winning in the Great Restructuring

There is an old military saying, which speaks volumes:

Armchair generals talk strategy. Real generals talk logistics.

Rich Karlgaard, the publisher of Forbes magazine, recalls this saying in his outstanding column on Innovation Rules: Ten Tips: Restructuring Winners, in which he identifies what elements will help corporations in the great restructuring, which necessarily follows a great recession. Frankly, there is a lot of relevance in his excellent advice to other organizations, including universities. He identifies successful companies such as: FedEx, Southwest Airlines, Microsoft, Apple, Genentech, SAS, and Oracle, which were started during the "rotten decade of the 1970s," during which IBM also managed to flourish.

What struck me about his ten tips for winning in the great restructuring, was that half of them I would classify under the heading of analytics, from his emphasis on identifying where costs can be reduced in your operations, to speeding up your deliveries, to providing leadership in service, as well as in design. But my favorite, was his statement:

PICK A LEADER IN ANY FIELD AND YOU'LL FIND SUPERB LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAINS UNDERNEATH. He singles out Wal-Mart and Amazon.com for their superior logistics.

As for the remainder of his tips, they round out what are fundamental to the success of corporations and organizations, alike. He advises to seek out the best talent, and quotes Bill Gates as stating that a great programmer is worth ten thousand times the price of only a good programmer. What really resonated with me, as well, was his emphasis on the importance of both internal and external communications (with IBM being a model for the latter and the military for the former). Excellent communications is one of my "pet peeves," and I wonder how much we have lost in the realization of the full potential of organizations because some of those "in command" did not provide the necessary information and did not get the important news disseminated.

Karlgaard ends by noting that integrity is essential and that everyone should know your purpose (see, it's about communication, here, too). I'll skip one of his tips -- branding, and will leave that to my marketing colleagues.

And, as for logistics, one of my undergrad students, who took my Transportation & Logistics class last term stopped by my office yesterday to seek advice because he wants a job in this industry, since logistics is his passion. I am sure that he will succeed.

If you wish to learn more about logistics and supply chains, please come to our Northeast Regional INFORMS conference at UMass Amherst, May 6-7, 2011. Information on a relevant tutorial at this conference is below.

Transforming U.S. Army Supply Chains: Management Innovation in DoD for Improved Efficiency, Productivity, and Cost-Effective Global Operations

Greg H. Parlier, Colonel, U.S. Army (retired)
Former Deputy Commander for Transformation, U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command
President, INFORMS Military Applications Society.