Disaster Politics and Operations Research

We are surrounded by politics and no organization is immune from politics.

The definition of the word politics I take from the Merriam-Webster dictionary and it includes:

1. the art or science of government;

2. the total complex of relations between people living in society.

My research group does a lot of work on disaster planning, emergency preparedness, and humanitarian operations with coverage of our most recent study being featured on newswire.com in an article entitled, Team Designs Optimal Supply Chains for Disaster Relief.

With the number of disasters growing as well as the number of people affected by disasters, the question arises as to what role politics play in disasters when it comes to the survival of citizens after disasters strike.

In a fascinating article, Disaster Politics: Why Earthquakes Rock Democracies Less, published in Foreign Affairs, Alistair Smith and Alejandro Quiroz Flores present documentation regarding earthquakes in different countries, the political structure in the countries, and the number of deaths attributed to recent disasters, and write:

In a democracy, leaders must maintain the confidence of large portions of the population in order to stay in power. To do so, they need to protect the people from natural disasters by enforcing building codes and ensuring that bureaucracies are run by competent administrators. When politicians fail to deliver -- by, for example, letting too many die in disasters -- they lose their jobs. On average, 39 percent of democracies experience anti-government protests within any two-year period. The rate almost doubles after a major earthquake (defined as one that results in more than 200 casualties). And whereas 40 percent of democratic nations replace their leader in any two-year period, between 1976 and 2007, 91 percent of them did so following a major earthquake.

The article also highlights the difference in outcomes in countries post disasters: On January 12, 2010, Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, was struck by a 7.0-magnitude earthquake that caused widespread destruction and killed approximately 222,000 people. The next month, Chile was hit by an 8.8-magnitude earthquake -- approximately 500 times stronger than that in Haiti -- but only 500 people died. The difference in losses (both in terms of lives lost and infrastructure destruction, which in the case of Haiti propagates to this day) was attributed to several factors: the difference in the building codes in these two countries and the government response to the earthquakes. The difference is also in the preparation: Chile, Japan, and the United States have implemented policies that keep acts of nature from becoming massive human tragedies, while others have not (and some of the most notable ones of the latter have been non-democratic countries).

I recall when I was at the Rockefeller Foundation's Bellagio Center on Lake Como, Italy, as organizer of the Humanitarian Logistics: Networks for Africa conference, which was "sandwiched" between (obviously, not planned) Cyclone Nargis that hit Myanmar (Burma) and the Sichuan Earthquake that hit China. There were several conferees in attendance who are well-known to the operations research community. While at Bellagio, we were told by Dr. Cosmas Zavazava of the International Telecommunications Union (whose UN-based organization also played an important role in restoring communications in Haiti after the earthquake) the difficulties that ITU had in getting its equipment to where it was needed in Myanmar because of the political situation (and he was in regular communication providing assistance while at the conference, which he deemed so important that he had to attend it).

George Fenton of the World Food Program, another invited conferee, managed to send us his presentation but was en route to Myanmar. The death toll following Cyclone Nargis was 138,000. As highlighted in Disaster Politics: Not only did the military regime do virtually nothing to help the communities worst affected it also blocked the arrival of international aid. The casualties were two orders of magnitude greater than those from Hurricane Katrina, but Myanmar’s military regime remains firmly entrenched.

We have a responsibility to educate and to inform citizens living under different political regimes that their governments must be prepared for disasters and must invest in resilient infrastructure to minimize the potential devastation. We have the knowledge to identify where to build (and how) so as to minimize risk; where to position necessary supplies in case of emergencies so that life-saving products can be delivered in a timely manner to population centers, and how to prioritize. We have the tools and techniques that can identify how organizations can team up during disasters in order to identify potential synergies so that lives are saved through cooperation rather than competition. Equally importantly, we must work to ensure that the actions of humans do not add to the potential devastation whether through climate change or inappropriate and inadequate resource allocation.

Bay State Winter Games at Williams College and the Drama of Figure Skating

The 2011 Bay State Winter Games are now taking place at Williams College in Williamstown, Massachusetts in the Berkshires.

Today is the last day of the three day figure skating competition.

We spent the entire day yesterday there since our daughter was competing in two events.

This year, not only were Massachusetts skaters invited to compete but also skaters from other New England states who do not host their own state games. There are about 450 who registered.

The weather was great and it was wonderful to see so many athletes, their coaches, families, and supporters. We enjoyed watching the skaters, walking through the small downtown with surprisingly wonderful restaurants and cafes (I recommend the bakery at Tunnel City cafe with exquisite treats that reminded me of Paris)!

Williams College, one of the top liberal arts colleges in the United States, was also bustling with other events, including a female basketball game vs. Middlebury.

Figure skating is a very challenging sport since it demands incredible discipline and athleticism, but also artistry and musicality. The competitive level was very high this year, which speaks well of this sport. There is also drama associated with this sport from a skater we saw whose hand touched her blade while skating her program and then had to be treated when she got off since she was bleeding (some seemed more worried about her skating dress, though, than her well-being). There were also tears among some of the competitors when they did not do as well as they had hoped. But they did their programs and competed and deserve applause for trying to do their best!

Some skaters were scheduled to skate in more than a single event so the waiting can be taxing and enervating. I suspect that skaters handle the waiting better than their parents! One is also always curious about the size of the flights (that is, the number that one gets to compete against) and over the years, the skaters who stick with this beautiful but difficult sport, get to know one another and to remember the results from various competitions over the years.

What I continue to find fascinating is who sticks with this sport, despite the dedication required, the difficulties associated with it, not to mention the cost. It is breathtaking to watch -- will the skater land the double jump? Will she (most of the skaters were female at this competition) do all the jumps and spins in her program? And even, will she be able to go on the ice to compete (we have seen some who, literally, were too frozen in fear to get on the ice in previous competitions). In this sport (unless one is doing dance or pairs) one is literally alone on the ice with the judges and spectators' eyes staring at you and one can't hide!

A former MBA student of mine, who is an auto executive, and who (I get the most interesting students, I must say) was also a competitive figure skater, sent me an email recently -- he asked me whether I am one of those mothers who can't watch their child compete (indeed, I am, but I am getting better and can now sneak a peak at the beginning of my daughter's program and towards the end).

Congratulations to all the skaters who competed at the 2011 Bay State Games at Williams College and thanks to the organizers for a wonderfully run event! Thanks also to the coaches who nurture their students and who help them to achieve their dreams!

And, yes, my daughter qualified for the State Games of America that will take place in the summer of 2011 in San Diego, California! The competition was tough but she loves this sport and that is what really matters!

Thundersnow, Traffic Anarchy, and the Disaster Recovery and Mitigation Planning and Resilience Panel at TRB

I caught the 3PM flight out of Reagan National Airport yesterday as many of the later flights were being canceled. I had the pleasure of having our congressmen, Richard Neal and John Olver, being on the same flight so I figured that we would make it to Bradley airport on time and we did (Thanks to Republic Air / USAIRWAYS)! I had flown to DC for the Transportation Research Board (TRB) meeting to speak on a panel (appropriate title, I might add -- see below).

This TRB annual meeting had attracted 10,000 transportation professionals from around the globe. This past Wednesday I arrived to no snow and 45 degree temperature with joggers in shorts! What a difference a day made! Thundersnow arrived yesterday shortly after our plane took off and paralyzed DC after 4PM! The Washington Post is reporting that it took some commuters 13 hours to make it home! People were stuck for hours on the parkway with The Post calling the gridlock -- traffic anarchy! And less than 24 hours before, President Obama had given his State of the Union speech in DC!

According to The Post: In the District, at the intersection of Connecticut Avenue and Albemarle Street NW in Van Ness, buses and cars were tangled in every direction, blocking the intersection for hours. One bus blocked three lanes of Connecticut Avenue for more than two hours. A pair of Metrobus drivers - who declined to identify themselves because they said they were not authorized to speak to reporters - called it the worst travel conditions they have seen in the city during their combined 23 years behind the wheel. (I stayed in a fabulous hotel -- the Normandy Hotel -- just off of Connecticut Avenue and had checked out only hours before. I told the reservations desk clerks that if my flight was canceled I would be back.)

Event Number:	700
Event Title:	Disaster Recovery and Mitigation Planning and Resilience
Event Date:	Jan 26 2011 10:15AM- 12:00PM
Event Location:	Hilton, Lincoln West
Presiding Officers:	Murray-Tuite, Pamela - Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Sponsored By:	Policy and Organization (AB000) Critical Transportation Infrastructure Protection (ABE40) Planning and Environment (AD000)

Event Description:

Transportation systems throughout the world are greatly affected by natural disasters and human-created events. These systems are critical for daily activities and the economy. The magnitude of the U.S. transportation infrastructure makes protecting it extremely challenging and costly. This special session highlights innovative approaches to disaster recovery planning and assesses improving transportation infrastructure resilience to extreme events.

Presentations:
Update on TRB Activities (P11-1419)
Western, Jeffrey L. - Western Management and Consulting, LLC
Building Resilience into Fragile Transportation Networks in an Era of Increasing Disaster (P11-1394)
Nagurney, Anna - University of Massachusetts
Infrastructure: Critical Link and Cutting Edge for Disaster Recovery and Mitigation (P11-1397)
Zimmerman, Rae - New York University
Learning from the Haiti Reconstruction Efforts (P11-1399)
Lissade, Herby - California Department of Transportation
U.K. Perspective (P11-1464)
Kollamthodi, Sujith - AEA Group, United Kingdom

The panel and discussions were fantastic and I took copious notes. As the panelists noted, one never knows when the next disaster will strike (with the snowstorm unveiling before our eyes shortly thereafter). The interconnectedness of our critical infrastructure systems was also emphasized (and 422,000 lost power yesterday on the DC area because of the snowstorm)! We are truly in the era of supernetworks!

Since I have had requests, I have posted my presentation on this link. And, yes, I mentioned the price of anarchy for traffic in my talk and how it is related to the indices that we have developed in our research to identify the most critical nodes and links in various network systems from transportation ones to the Internet, electric power networks, and even financial ones.

I wish all the TRB conferees safe travels back to their homes! It was great to see so many wonderful colleagues from throughout the US and abroad in DC!

A Vision for the Nation Drawn from a Brilliant University Model

My suitcase is packed and I will soon be leaving for Washington DC where I will be speaking on an invited panel tomorrow morning at the Transportation Research Board meeting.

Tonight I will be watching President Obama's State of the Union speech in DC.

There is great anticipation surrounding his speech and newspapers and bloggers are writing about what they believe that the citizens need to hear -- clearly the country is starving for energizing, positive leadership that will coalesce the strengths and work ethic of its people and that will build upon collaboration and creativity. Competitiveness is being highlighted as well but with an entirely different slant.

David Brooks, in his OpEd piece, "A Talent Magnet," in today's New York Times, presents a brilliant analogy between government and a university and gives guidance to the leadership of our country. In his OpEd, he writes: In this century, economic competition between countries is less like the competition between armies or sports teams (with hermetically sealed units bashing or racing against each other). It’s more like the competition between elite universities, who vie for prestige in a networked search for knowledge. It’s less: “We will crush you with our efficiency and might.” It’s more: “We have the best talent and the best values, so if you want to make the most of your own capacities, you’ll come join us.”

The new sort of competition is all about charisma. It’s about gathering talent in one spot (in the information economy, geography matters more than ever because people are most creative when they collaborate face to face). This concentration of talent then attracts more talent, which creates more collaboration, which multiplies everybody’s skills, which attracts more talent and so on.

The nation with the most diverse creative hot spots will dominate the century.

He then argues that the President of our nation is like the President of a University (coincidentally, UMass just named its new President, Dr. Robert L. Caret) and although the President lives in the "big house" it is the professors, the researchers, the tutors, the coaches and the students that are the real guts of a university. They handle the substance of what gets done. The administrators play vital but secondary roles. They build the settings. They raise money. They recruit and do marketing. They help students who are stumbling.

The administrators couldn’t possibly understand or control the work in the physics or history departments. They just try to gather talent, set guidelines and create an atmosphere where brilliance can happen.

This is what outstanding administrators do, I might add, and we certainly need such talented individuals since incompetent, negative ones can seriously damage, impair, and even destroy an organization. Leaders are desperately needed who can create an environment in which talent is nurtured, supported, and in which laudatory efforts and successes are rewarded and recognized (sometimes a public compliment is worth more than a few dollars in one's paycheck and why is it difficult for some managers to do this?!).

So it is with government in an innovation economy. Entrepreneurs, corporate executives, line workers and store managers handle the substance of the economy. Government tries to nurture settings where brilliance can happen.

Yesterday, a female undergraduate student, who is an Operations Management major, came to my office to chat and we spoke for about an hour and a half. She and I concurred that the time just flew by (but she had to go to a class and I had to go teach a class). We spoke about her family, her courses, her major and dreams, and about the course that she took from me last semester. She told me how she is looking at the world in a different way because of my course (Transportation & Logistics). This was such a compliment and I couldn't be prouder of my students -- from the projects that they do to the jobs that they aspire to obtain to the positive role models that they are for the younger students.

The United States, like our universities, will succeed through administration in which collaboration in a supportive environment takes place so that everyone can be appreciated, can thrive, and can achieve one's potential. The output will then exceed the sum of its parts through knowledge creation. (Interestingly, last year, one of my former doctoral students, who is now a Professor, Dr. Patrick Qiang, and I presented a paper on knowledge collaboration networks across disciplines at the SBP 2010 conference, which was published in its Proceedings volume!)

Designing Transportation Infrastructure for Wildlife at TRB and Amherst

The Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting has now begun in Washington DC and I am very pleased to see coverage in The New York Times. Today, it is reporting on the finalists and the winner of a design competition to help animals in crossing a road in Colorado. According to the article: At a picturesque spot in the mountains near the ski resorts of Vail and Breckenridge, Colo., two streams of traffic converge: people driving east and west on Interstate 70, and animals — black bears, cougars, bobcats, elk and deer — headed north and south to feed and mate. When they collide, the animal is almost always killed and the vehicle badly damaged, even if the driver is lucky enough to escape injury.

This is an example of multimodal/multiclass transportation and I will definitely bring it to the attention of my students since transportation need not just be about moving people and products!

The winner of the animal design crossing is Michael Van Valkenburgh & Associates, a landscape architecture firm with offices in New York City and Cambridge, MA. The design team, associated with the national construction firm HNTB, submitted a proposal for a bridge made of lightweight precast concrete panels that are snapped into place and covered with foliage.

The award is for $40,000.

In Amherst, the "wildlife" crossing design is in the form of tunnels and this initiative (without any financial incentives, I might add) was initiated decades ago, to assist salamanders crossing Henry Street so that they could mate. The New York Times reported on this crossing, with human intervention, back in 1988.

Who knows if the winning animal bridge design will actually be implemented in Colorado. In Amherst, the town actually built two tunnels decades ago and the salamander crossing has become an annual town event! What our town did is even reported on the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration website, complete with photos of salamanders! The tunnels were made possible through the efforts of the Amherst Department of Public Works, UMass Amherst, the MA Audubon Society, the Hitchcock Center (where my daughter and many others volunteer), and local residents.

See the photo above of the salamander crossing sign, which is a short walk from our home.

A Perfect Evening at the Rink at Deerfield Academy

"It was one of the best nights of my life," my daughter said yesterday and her day began by showing up at 7:30AM to take the SATs. It was also a day that my husband and I attended a college counseling session (very well-done, I must say) at Deerfield Academy.

But last night will be a night we will long remember.

It was the night of the Choate vs. Deerfield hockey game at Deerfield and these two prep schools are historically big rivals. Also, our daughter had been asked (it was suggested as early as last year) to skate during the second period break and she had received permission from U.S. Figure Skating to put on a performance.

We had entered the rink (honestly) to the smell of bacon cooking outside in single digit temperatures (Deerfield folks will understand) and one could hear the cheering from the fans outside.

I have never been at an event at which there was so much school spirit -- it was truly extraordinary to experience and so much fun -- from the students jumping in unison in the bleachers to the hockey players being high fived going on and off the ice by other sports team members (I think -- lacrosse especially with notable enthusiasm) to fans of all ages from little kids to friends in wheelchairs. Some students were selling hot chocolate and everyone was so engaged!

My daughter's wonderful skating coach came to put her on the ice and to support her, as did her husband, who had been a youth hockey coach for years and is a graduate of the UMass School of Management, where I teach.

Luckily, my daughter's skating dress is green (Deerfield's school color with the motto -- Bleed Green) and she was welcomed with such cheers onto the ice. She skated with pure happiness (without even a warmup and on hockey ice) and the experience was simply fantastic.

If only all schools at all levels could engender such mutual support of their students with such tremendous school spirit -- think what the world could accomplish!

And Deerfield Academy beat Choate in overtime with a score of 4-3!

I have not yet read Amy Chua's book, Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother, but even my daughter's English class got to read Janet Maslin's review of it in the New York Times last week. From the experience that so many of us had last night it is clear to me that children can succeed and have a fabulous time on their journeys as children with the support of their schools and the community cheering them on!

Above I have posted some photos from last night's game that capture the spirit and the fun of the event.

I would also like to add that Choate played extraordinarily well and the game was a heart-stopper!

Thanks to all concerned -- from the terrific coaches to the extraordinary teachers, the truly kind and thoughtful staff, and the wonderful administrators as well as to the super students -- for the fantastic memories! The hockey refs even high-fived my daughter when she finished her program!

Jane Garvey, Lifetime Achievement Award in Transportation, and O.R.

Jane Garvey, whose husband is our county sheriff, complete with the proper hat and uniform, will be honored next Tuesday at the Transportation Research Board Meeting in Washington DC
(at which about 10,000 transportation professionals are expected) with the Frank Turner Medal for Lifetime Achievements in Transportation. Turner was the architect of the federal highway system.

Garvey, who began her career as a junior high teacher in South Hadley, having majored in English, and after a receipt of a Master's from Mount Holyoke, became involved in local political campaigns. She then became head of the State Department of Public Works (DPW) (now called the Department of Transportation) and, although not an engineer, gained the confidence of the employees. According to the Amherst Bulletin, Garvey is quoted as saying: I think one of the lessons I learned from [former state Secretary of Transportation] Frederick Salvucci is that when you come to an organization ... you spend a lot of time listening to employees. You identify a couple of things where you can really go to bat for them.

After being Commissioner of the DPW, she became the head of Logan Airport for two years. She then became the first female Director of the FAA, where she served from 1997-2002. During her tenure there, she handled two major events, the new millennium and the Y2K scare, plus the terrorist attacks of 2001. It was Garvey's task to help land 4,923 planes that were in the air over the United States after the attacks. According to the Amherst Bulletin, Garvey said: When I look back at it, I am always grateful and extremely impressed that the air traffic controllers were able to safely bring down all those planes that day. To stand in the office before the screen with the light that shows every flight, then watching the lights going off as the planes landed safely -- sometimes 1, 2, 3 at a time -- it was extraordinary.

Garvey is now Chairwoman of the Paris-based Meridien Infrastructure's North American operation.

I will be at TRB and will be speaking on an invited panel that day so I hope to personally congratulate Garvey on this truly deserved distinction, which is being given by 16 state and federal transportation agencies as well as industry associations.

I met Jane Garvey and her husband at a dinner party on Blue Hills Road in Amherst hosted by their neighbors, Professor Joe Balintfy and his lovely wife, Lily Lancaster, a few years after I joined the faculty at UMass Amherst. It was a poolside party. The Garveys have since moved from Amherst to Northampton (where the county jail is located). Professor Balintfy was one of my senior colleagues and his wife, who was completing her PhD in Management Science, was and is an amazing gourmet cook.

At their dinner parties (I especially remember an incredible Valentine's Day dinner party) we would not only be the recipients of a delicious meal, but also have our calorie consumption and nutritional intake analyzed by Professor Balintfy's software. He was an expert on the diet problem, well-known to operations researchers and management scientists, and had developed elegant extensions that were sold to schools, hospitals, and even jails. I recall him telling us a wonderful story of how he had tried to sell his menu planning software to a jail in New Jersey but the warden there wanted to "minimize the prisoners' utility" rather than maximize their happiness and if they disliked grapefruit that is what he would serve them regularly.

Congrats to Jane Garvey on her much-deserved recognition for contributions to leadership in multimodal transportation! It is amazing the people that one gets to meet in Amherst.