Networks and Operations Research, Patterns and Big Data -- So How Does Money and Traffic Flow?

We've heard about the new geography -- now we are hearing about the new mathematics and at the prestigious Goldman Sachs technology conference that took place recently in San Francisco.

There, as noted by Quentin Hardy, writing for The New York Times, Steve Mills, IBM's senior vice president for software and systems was quoted as saying that when it comes to algorithms, "If I can do a power grid, I can do water supply..." Even traffic, which like water and electricity has value when it flows effectively. Moreover, Mills is quoted as saying in terms of cross-pollination and finding commonalities and patterns with the help of big data and algorithms that we are now: "leveraging the cost structure of new mathematics."

When I read about flows and especially in the context of transportation, electric power grids, natural resources, and finance, of course, networks and operations research and even economics immediately come to my mind since I have been researching and writing about the topic for many years.

I have always been fascinated by the commonality among problems and find that networks and the associated methodologies, such as optimization theory, game theory, variational inequality theory, and projected dynamical systems, provide a captivating medium for visualization, analysis, and computation and a way of bridging disciplines.

In our research and publications, we were able to answer several open questions, raised over a half a century ago:

1. How does money flow -- does it flow like water or electricity (raised by Cohen in 1952).

2. How are electric power generations and distribution networks like transportation networks (raised by Beckmann, McGuire, and Winsten in their classic 1956 book, Studies in the Economics of Transportation).

You can see the answers to the above questions in our papers in Computational Management Science and Naval Research Logistics, respectively.

In addition, we established, through a supernetwork formalism, how supply chain network equilibrium problems could be reformulated and solved as transportation network equilibrium problems -- thereby, constructing a common conceptual, modeling, and algorithmic framework for these two important classes of problems. That paper, On the Relationship Between Supply Chain and Transportation Network Equilibria: A Supernetwork Equivalence with Computations, was published in Transportation Research E 42: (2006) pp 293-316.

I also have a synthesis of the above equivalences in my Supply Chain Network Economic: Dynamics of Prices, Flows, and Profits book, which was published in 2006 and written that glorious year when I was a Science Fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University.

For those of you who are interested in the history of networks, with a focus on financial networks, and which includes a reference to Cohen above, please see my presentation on Financial Networks delivered at the Workshop on Measuring Systemic Risk, courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the University of Chicago in December 2010.

What seems like new mathematics (as was the case also with the new geography) to some is that now a wider circle is coming to realize the importance of research that has been going on for quite a long time, with major innovations over decades (frankly, centuries). Yes, I think it is really cool when an algorithm I implemented for predicting urban traffic flows can also be used to predict product flows on supply chain networks or financial transactions. Even major corporations are starting to notice.

United States in Science and Engineering Research and Education -- Stunning 2012 Report from the National Science Board

The National Science Board has released its report: Science and Engineering Indicators 2012, which contains a broad base of quantitative information on the U.S. and the international science and engineering enterprise.

The report is organized into various chapters with fact-filled findings and stunning, informative graphics and figures.

I have been pouring over the report and am especially interested in the higher education chapter and the academic research and development chapter; the latter chapter has interesting data on the average number of papers published per year in different science and engineering disciplines by an author and the average number of co-authors on a paper, along with trends. It also discusses how the volumes of international collaborations have changed over recent years. Interestingly, according to the academic research and development chapter:

Article output trends since about the mid-1990s have two defining features: the rapid growth of articles with authors from the developing world, and a rise in the percentage of global article output that is the result of collaboration among researchers internationally. Articles with authors from different institutions in the United States and from different countries have continued to increase, indicating rising knowledge creation, transfer, and sharing among institutions and across national boundaries.

The report was brought to my attention by Catherine Rampell, writing in the New York Times Economix blog on Why Students Leave the Engineering Track.

Interestingly, in last Sunday's New York Times, there was a provocative essay, The Rise of the New GroupThink, by Susan Cain, that argued that creativity required solitude and intense focus -- think of great artists and novelists but also of Steve Wozniak, who is quoted as saying: “Most inventors and engineers I’ve met are like me ... they live in their heads. They’re almost like artists. In fact, the very best of them are artists. And artists work best alone .... I’m going to give you some advice that might be hard to take. That advice is: Work alone... Not on a committee. Not on a team.”

For me, hours of intense sessions in solitude work for certain research problems and projects, whereas, for others, I thrive on brainstorming sessions with collaborators and students, in a combination of virtual and face-to-face communication.

As for my most recently completed paper, it was with a new French collaborator, Dr. Christian Mullon, who is a mathematical ecologist and with whom I completed a paper on predator-prey models and game theory using some of my previous work on migration networks and his expertise on ocean fish. We had been corresponding for a while and I had a chance to meet him and his wife when I was in Paris last October to give a plenary talk at the NetGCoop conference.

If one works on crossing disciplines, one needs collaborators, and, besides, it is just very rewarding intellectually and personally to work with others.

Looking Forward to Speaking in Paris at the NetGCoop Conference

I will be giving a plenary talk at the 2011 NetGCoop International Conference on Network Games, Control, and Optimization, which takes place next month in Paris, France.

The title of my plenary is: Grand Challenges and Opportunities in Supply Chain Network Analysis and Design. Another plenary speaker will be my good colleague, Professor Asu Ozdaglar from MIT, whom we had hosted in our speaker series a while back.

Pretty cool that the organizers have selected several females as plenary speakers!

I am very much looking forward to this conference.

Above I have posted several photos from my trip to Paris 3 summers ago when I spoke at the Funding Transportation Infrastructure Conference and at the Computing in Economics and Finance Conference at the Sorbonne.

Japan's Electric Power Grid Can't Cope Because the Networks Don't Match Up!

In my most recent blogpost, I noted the importance of electric power generation and distribution networks and their reliability.

IEEE Spectrum, in a very illuminating article, notes that parts of Japan, following the triple disaster there, have to now deal with rolling blackouts (this, in addition to the displacement of people, the destruction of the infrastructure in the affected areas, plus radiation in some of the food, water, air, and soil). This dire situation is expected to continue for months.

Ironically, parts of Japan can generate sufficient electric power to overcome the unmet demand in the general Tokyo area and eastern parts, but, according to the article:

TEPCO’s supply situation would look less grim were it not for a quirky split that divides Japan’s power grids in half: While Tokyo and the rest of eastern Japan run on 50-hertz electricity, the big cities southwest of Tokyo and the rest of the country run on alternating current that cycles at 60 Hz. It’s a historical accident from the 19th century, when Tokyo’s electrical entrepreneurs installed 50-Hz generators mainly from Germany, while their counterparts in Osaka selected 60-Hz equipment from the United States. The result is a national grid whose two halves cannot directly exchange AC power, which limits TEPCO’s ability to seek help from the 56 percent of Japan’s power-generating capacity that lies to the west.

"It’s a shame. The western grids can supply a lot. I think they could cover [TEPCO’s] peak demand," says Kent Hora, executive vice president for Mitsubishi Electric Power Products, the U.S. arm of Japanese power-engineering giant Mitsubishi Electric.

Personally, this reminds me of areas of the world where the railroad tracks are of different gauges and, hence, trains can't continue moving from one network to another.

There is a discussion in the article about the potential of new transmission lines being built but also that some of the citizens are saying NotInMyBackYard, which certainly complicates matters!

Collaboration Networks and a CEO who Gets it Right

Cristobal Conde, the President and C.E.O. of SunGard, a software and IT company, provides some very illuminating and effective management insights in this interview in the New York Times. His experiences have led him to conclude that "flatter" is better, and that collaboration is key in organizations. He provides a unique perspective in how to give employees credit for their ideas and contributions through Yammer. Recognition (and not only money) is what many employees seek, and especially from their peers. In academia, we have peer review when it comes to our journal articles and many grants but these tend to be anonymous. In organizations, those public pats on the back for good work done can serve as substantive recognition and as fuel for further endeavors and achievements.

This article deserves a close reading. I also applaud Mr. Conde, for whom English is not a first language, for his emphasis on the importance of good writing skills in his employees. Plus, he tries to scope out 90 minutes of his work day in which he can think without interruptions.

As Director for the Virtual Center for Supernetworks, I try to synergize the activities, whether in research or education or service of our Associates. I am personally proud when they excel since we then all benefit.