We Are Not Prepared for All the Floods

It took my husband 45 minutes to drive the last two miles to his university today because of the flash floods.

It took one of his colleagues 90 minutes to drive his daughter to school, a trip that usually takes 10 minutes.

I am not even speaking about Hurricane Irene and what it did to our area of western Massachusetts; for an update on its ramifications you can read my post where photos are also included.

After being pummeled by Hurricane Irene 11 days ago, we are now experiencing the aftereffects of Tropical Storm Lee.

Just have a look at the flash flood in one of the parking lots at the university where my husband teaches. He called to tell me that one of his students was surprised by her parents with a brand new car this past weekend with only 100 miles on it and, yes, it got washed away. Needless to say, she is distraught.

Areas of the northeast have barely had a chance to recover and to rebuild and now we are faced with more rain and flooding and folks even had to be rescued today in a neighboring area.

Emergency notification systems must be in place as we deal with more extreme events at greater frequencies.

One of my students in my Transportation & Logistics class this morning who lives close to the Connecticut River told me that she could see from her house refrigerators, cars, and detritus floating by -- not a natural set of events.

The flooding in Pennsylvania and middle New York state is now resulting of the evacuation of 100,000!

A very sad and scary state of affairs and so few in the northeast hold flood insurance, as the head of The Bement School, where my daughter went to elementary school, recently noted in a letter to the community of the hardships suffered because of Hurricane Irene and the flooding in Deerfield.

Now if only we could somehow transport all the excess water in the Northeast to the dried out and burning parts of Texas.

The Resilience of New Englanders

Although my heritage is European and I was born in Canada, I consider myself very lucky to be living in such a historic part of the US, that is, in New England.

Indeed, when not living in such great places as Sweden and Austria and even Cambridge, Massachusetts or traveling far and wide, Pioneer Valley of western Massachusetts, with such great towns as Amherst, Deerfield, and others, has become our home.

Since our daughter has gone to elementary school at The Bement School, in Old Deerfield, and is now at Deerfield Academy, located just down the street from Bement, both in a truly historic and beautiful part of Massachusetts, we have come to know many families from New England (and even across the globe since Deerfield Academy is primarily a boarding school).

What has struck me most after Hurricane / Tropical Storm Irene hit New England last Sunday is how the neighbors and communities pulled together (with some great help from the National Guard I might add and local emergency responders plus electric power folks from far and wide).

After the torrential rains had subsided, a neighbor's son showed up at our door with a chainsaw and chipper ready to clean up our front yard on which two big trees had fallen. We appreciated his offer but declined since he is a minor. A local crew showed up on Monday morning to do the job and we were just thrilled. A DPW worker arrived yesterday in his free time to chop up the logs and piled them into his pickup truck to use as firewood (a win-win situation since he gets fuel for the winter and this cost us nothing and we enjoyed talking to him).

I have written about and posted photos of Deerfield after Irene and what has been called a once in 500 years flood. The cleanup operations continue and Historic Deerfield will reopen tomorrow (but the lovely Deerfield Inn will remain closed for an unknown amount of time).

One day after the flooding, my daughter was back at her summer job as a tour guide at Deerfield Academy and this week, despite the flooded fields and neighboring farmlands, gave tours to prospective students and their families not only from California but from as far away as Korea and Turkey. She did not show the flooded areas, which today, 5 days after the hurricane, remain covered in thick, gooey mud.

Her elementary school, The Bement School, had had to have families evacuated and a gorgeous new dorm has had to have its flooring entirely replaced and other damage recovery done. The head of the School, Ms. Shelley Borror Jackson, wrote a wonderful, poignant message of how the flood surrounded her home and the waters filled the basement and moved up the stairs. Her message can be read here. A neighboring school, The Eaglebrook School (you may not know but the present King of Jordan went to both Eaglebrook and Deerfield Academy) provided refuge for both the Jacksons and some other evacuated families.

Our neighbors just north of Deerfield, from Greenfield to Brattleboro, Vermont, and further up sustained much damage and it will take years for Vermont to recover and to repair its devastated roads and bridges whose destruction isolated communities before help, ranging from hikers to state troopers to military in Chinook helicopters arrived to deliver necessary water, food, and medicines to stranded folks.

And the good news arrived, in the form of an email message today, from the President of Historic Deerfield that said:

Just in time for Labor Day Weekend, Historic Deerfield museum will again welcome visitors to its world-class collections and historic houses on Sat., Sept. 3 at 9:30 a.m. The reopening marks a return to some semblance of normalcy and a chance to refocus on the fall season at hand after seven days of forced closure to the public due to infrastructure damage caused by flooding from Hurricane Irene.

"Now that we can guarantee the safety of our visitors and our collections we will gladly reopen," said Philip Zea, President of Historic Deerfield. "We're very grateful for the heroic efforts of staff, volunteers, and vendors who have helped us prepare for and recover from this crisis."

Visitors will find almost all museum offerings intact. The two exceptions will be the continued closure of the Sheldon House and the Channing Blake Meadow Walk.

A Once in 500 Years Flood -- Hurricane Irene and Photos of Deerfield

It seems that Manhattan managed quite well during and after Hurricane or "Tropical Storm" Irene. My 92 year old uncle, who lives in mid-Manhattan, and who has survived two World Wars and saw the towers crumble on 9/11, called me today to check on us in western MA. He said that the subways are running in NYC and he has been back to work (what an amazing generation his is) and was disappointed that Lincoln Center canceled its performances this past weekend because of Hurricane Irene.

Western Massachusetts and Vermont continue to feel the impact of Irene with many towns in the latter completely isolated due to flooded roads and downtowns. Power is still out in parts and bridges have been closed and await inspection, if they are not destroyed.

Amherst made it through relatively unscathed. We lost two trees in our front yard and so did some neighbors but the flooding in neighboring towns has been horrendous.

Yesterday, after taking detours to get to work at Deerfield Academy, where my daughter is working as a tour guide this summer, the scenes of flooding were horrific.

Above I have posted some photos of areas of Deerfield Academy in Old Deerfield one day after Irene hit this past Sunday.

Amazingly, there was even a group of National Guardsmen with a Humvee guarding a road off of Old Deerfield, which leads to farmland. Disaster recovery experts were at work plus even families at the Bement School had to be evacuated as well as several ones at Deerfield Academy (even by boat).

A UMass Amherst geoscientist, Professor David F. Boutt, who is an expert on this part of very historic Massachusetts, said that what happened is a once in hundreds of years event.

Tough to see so much of the beautiful landscape under water as well as the farms with corn and potatoes and pumpkins.

We wish all those affected by Irene a timely recovery.

In addition, even the Deerfield Inn suffered flooding and will be closed for several weeks (and this is a busy time with the schools in the area opening up and with the leaf-peepers soon to arrive).

More photos of Deerfield under water can be accessed here.

This morning we received the press release below from Historic Deerfield.

Flooding from Hurricane Irene Causes Museum, Inn Closings

Historic Deerfield Plans to Reopen on Thursday, Sept. 1;

Deerfield Inn and Champney's Restaurant & Tavern Closed
Indefinitely

Due to extreme flooding from Hurrricane Irene, Historic Deerfield is closed to the public through Wednesday, August 31, 2011. The museum plans to reopen on Thursday, Sept. 1, 2011 at 9:30 a.m.-although three historic houses at the flooded north end will likely remain closed. The Deerfield Inn and Champney's Restaurant & Tavern will be closed indefinitely.

"This kind of severe flooding is rare in Deerfield," said Philip Zea, President of Historic Deerfield. "Luckily our advance preparations on Friday and Saturday helped ensure that the museum houses and collections remained safe."

Not so fortunate was the Deerfield Inn, which sustained major flood damage to the first floor of its annex and to the basement of the main building. It may be several days before the waters recede enough to allow investigators to gain access to these spaces to assess the damage and begin the process of rebuilding. In the meantime, guests have been relocated and reservations are being cancelled for the next two
weeks.

"Our goal is to reopen the Inn as quickly as possible," said Susan Martinelli, Vice President for Busiess Affairs at Historic Deerfield. "We will not know the full extent of the project until the investigation is completed."

"Aside from the Deerfield Inn, we had water fill the cellars of three buildings," added Zea. "But rivers keep old habits and the Deerfield River has flooded for ten thousand years when the Connecticut refuses to take her water. That's why these fields are so fertile."

Historic Deerfield (www.historic-deerfield.org) plans to reopen on Thursday, Sept. 1, for tours from 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. For more information about Historic Deerfield please call 413-775-7214. For more information on the Deerfield Inn and Champney's Restaurant & Tavern, please call 413-774-5587.

Click here for some helpful hints, from scientists, on how to deal with flooded homes!

Evacuation Networks and Hurricane Irene -- When Selfish Travel is Actually Unselfish

For the past few weeks I have been busy working on my Transportation & Logistics lectures for the course that I am teaching this Fall at the Isenberg School at UMass Amherst.

In the course, students will be learning about different transportation (and network) behavioral and decision-making principles, including user-optimized (selfish) and system-optimized (unselfish) behavior, and the effects on travel times and costs, and I will also be covering aspects of disaster and emergency preparedness and other timely topics.

Now, we are awaiting Hurricane Irene, and western Massachusetts is forecasted to be in the eye of this hurricane tomorrow afternoon, Sunday, August 28. Governor Deval Patrick has declared a state of emergency as have many other governors of states along the Northeast Corridor of the Unites States where 1 out 5 Americans live.

For the first time in history, NYC, with a population of 8 million, has issued an evacuation order to those living in low-lying areas, which is affecting over 370,000 people, with certain hospitals and nursing homes already evacuated.

Evacuations have also been issued in parts of North Carolina and New Jersey and I was impressed that the Providence Journal (I went to Brown University and we have relatives in Rhode Island) even posted evacuation maps for different localities in Rhode Island!

Maps are, of course, extremely useful as are GPS systems, but neither provides the true picture of what happens when thousands of vehicles flood the roads in the case of an emergency and evacuation since they do not capture congestion. Hence, the roads may be jam-packed as travelers seek to reach points of higher ground inland and safety. Moreover, if everyone uses the "shortest" recommended route, which does not include the travel time due to congestion (the number of vehicles on that road) it may actually become the "longest" one -- dangerous when a hurricane is approaching.

Hence, what should be done, for equity and fairness, interestingly enough (and I have been doing a lot of thinking and research on this topic) is to have the traffic be routed in an evacuation in a user-optimized manner so that all routes have travel times, from each origin to safe destination, that are equal and minimal. This is actually how commuters behave in selecting their cost-minimizing routes of travel and, in an emergency, user-optimization or selfish behavior actually is unselfish!

With the mass transit shutdown in NYC as of noon today, there may be large traffic jams but I am impressed by the attention that has been given to making sure that the subway and train cars are protected. Even tolls (which I also teach about in my course) will be eliminated to assist in the timeliness of evacuations and the flow travel time.

We have stocked up on bottled water, nonperishable food, batteries, and have our flashlights and radios ready as well as our cars filled with gas.

Regions in the Northeast may be without power for as long as a week so one has to be prepared.

We are expecting pounding rain for 10 hours or so with winds up to 70 miles an hour in our area, beginning tomorrow. By that time, only emergency vehicles should be on the roads.

In fact, even our campus is officially closed for 48 hours this weekend.

For more background on our critical infrastructure systems and their resiliency (or not), please see the article, "Fragile Networks: Identifying Vulnerabilities and Synergies in an Uncertain Age," co-authored with Dr. Patrick Qiang, who's recent statement on disasters and rare events, including our recent earthquake and now Hurricane Irene, appears on his university's website.

Will Hurricane Irene Be Like the Hurricane of 1938?

The last time that a major hurricane hit NYC and western Massachusetts was back in 1938, and there is serious speculation that Hurricane Irene now moving up the eastern seaboard may be as bad as the 1938 hurricane (which is being referred to as its Grandma) and, given the increase in population over the past 70 years in the Northeast, its impact even worse.

One has to realize that 63 million people live in the northeast corridor, 20% of the US population!

There is ongoing analysis as to what may happen to critical infrastructure links, including tunnels and bridges, as well as worst case scenarios.

Given that it is not unreasonable that the NYC subway system could be knocked out, Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced that the NYC mass transit system is being shut down at noon tomorrow, Saturday, August 27. In addition, residents of NYC have been advised to stay indoors from Saturday at 9PM through this Sunday 9PM.

Hundreds of flights have already been cancelled by Jet Blue airline alone. For the first time in NYC, evacuations have been ordered in parts of NYC by Mayor Bloomberg.

For more updates on transit shutdowns and thousands of flight cancellations click here.

Also, since the Northeast corridor is roughly at sea level, the transportation infrastructure along it from roads, rails, airports, etc., can be severely affected by Hurricane Irene. Just think, where does one even shelter all the trains and planes?

Coincidentally, on a recent shuttle trip to catch a flight at Bradley airport, my driver brought up the 1938 hurricane, which he had survived, and he worked for years as a civil engineer. He had told me that people have forgotten about the devastation that resulted. I located some photos of the flooding, etc., on one of our local news websites.

Obviously, we have started to prepare for Hurricane Irene, and unlike the tornados (another "rare" event) that swept through western Massachusetts on June 1, 2011, we have much more time to do so!

The most recent book that I co-authored, Fragile Networks: Identifying Vulnerabilities and Synergies in an Uncertain World, with Dr. Patrick Qiang, provides metrics for the identification of which transportation (and other critical infrastructure) network links (and nodes) are the most important.

It appears that many state and local governments are doing a good job in notifying citizens and in preparing for this emergency. In the meantime, make sure that you take care of your family members and watch out for the well-being of your neighbors.

Hurricane Irene and College Moving In (or Out) Day

Hurricane Irene is coinciding with moving in day for many colleges in the Northeast of the US so there has been quite a lot of decision-making and schedule reshuffling going on.

Some colleges have moved the arrival date up to tomorrow, Saturday, August 27, while others have gone as far as closing campuses until Tuesday. In any event, the college orientations in the Northeast I-95 corridor will clearly need to engage in some disruption management and refocusing.

The Boston Globe is reporting on what colleges from Harvard to various UMass campuses are doing in light of Hurricane Irene, which is to hit Massachusetts this Sunday. NYU has delayed its arrival day for students from Sunday until Monday, according to The New York Times, which is also reporting that certain hospitals and nursing homes in NYC in low-lying areas have begun evacuations today. New York City's Health Commissioner, Dr. Thomas A. Farley, was chairman of the community health sciences department at Tulane University when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005.

According to The Boston Globe: At least one college was planning to weather the storm with very few changes to its original plan. Andrew Klein, the Dean of Student Affairs at Anna Maria College, a small liberal arts school in the Worcester suburb of Paxton, said the school would start classes Monday as scheduled. As for its 285 freshmen, orientation was still on.

A university in western Massachusetts, Westfield State, is taking a completely different approach and its President, Dr. Dobelle, has issued a statement saying that all students must vacate the campus, beginning today, Friday at 4PM, through Tuesday morning.

Remember the proverb: Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best.