Monday, August 12, 2013

Beautiful Boston is Back

I was in Boston yesterday on a gorgeous sunny Sunday.

This was my first time back since the Boston Marathon bombings on April 15, 2013.

I have been spending a lot of time in Sweden, as part of my sabbatical this year and, upon my return to Massachusetts, knew that I had to go back to Boston to visit the locations of the bombings and to pay tribute to all those who have suffered so much. The shock of that day continues but, as I have written on other occasions, New Englanders are resilient.


In the photos below, taken around the Boston Common yesterday, I tried to capture the pure joy of  the people in Boston and the beauty of nature coupled with the architecture and landscaping.



I also meandered on Boylston Street and stood close to the marathon finish line where the two bombs had exploded that day a few seconds and just over 200 yards apart.   

At the next INFORMS annual meeting, which is taking place in Minneapolis, I will see one of the Boston marathon runners, Professor Alla Kammerdiner, from New Mexico State University, who invited me to speak in a session that she organized for the conference on cybersecurity and big data. She managed to finish the race before the bombs struck and then heard the news as she was making her way back to her hotel.

Yesterday, I also saw the headquarters of The One Fund Boston, which has raised over 60 million dollars to assist the victims and their families. The administrator of One Fund Boston is the UMass Amherst alum, Ken Feinberg. I heard him speak on April 27, 2013 at the UMass Rising Gala in Amherst. He is an amazing speaker and has been an administrator of several other well-known victim funds.
 

And, coincidentally, I stopped at the Four Seasons hotel to catch my breath and the staff was setting up for a wedding. Only after I returned back to Amherst, did I find out that the wedding was that of the son of Professor David Simchi-Levi of MIT, who is well-known in operations research and supply chain circles, and his wife, Ethel. The wedding announcement was in The Sunday New York Times. I congratulated David with a hearty Mazel-tov!

Beautiful Boston is back and it felt really good to be back in Boston!

Friday, August 9, 2013

Supply Chain Game Theory and Product Quality -- It's About Your Reputation

Quality of its products is the basis of a firm's reputation.

And, needs for improvements in product quality drive innovation.

Quality is what we, as consumers, seek in the food that we eat, the clothes that we wear, the toys that our children (and, perhaps, even we) play with, the latest high tech products that we crave, the life-saving and prolonging medicines that those in need take, the cars that we drive, the planes that we fly in,  the homes that we live in and the appliances that we use, and, of course,  the air that we breathe.

As supply chains have become more global the news about quality product shortcomings around the world is reaching beyond borders and is shocking from the Bangladesh disasters and fast fashion to the adulteration of milk and infant formulas   to the heparin adulteration which led to a pharmaceutical identity crisis, to the mysterious food-borne illness from lettuce served at Red Lobster and Olive Garden, to name just a few. Moreover, the manufacturing processes themselves may lead to the worsening of the quality of the air and the environment as has been well-documented, especially, most recently in China..


Many firms are identified by their products and their products are their brands. 

Game theory can illuminate not only which supplier a firm should select but also whether to outsource or to manufacture/produce the product in-house and the associated impacts on costs, revenues, and profits.

But game theory can help firms to do even more in terms of quantifiable analysis and evaluation and this is why game theory is so powerful. It enables us to  quantify the loss in a firm's reputation through a disrepute cost if the quality of the delivered product is substandard.

It is essential to capture the possible loss in reputation as we have done in two papers. In the first paper, we focused on the pharmaceutical industry, and in the second, we captured competition among firms with outsourcing options, which is applicable to many different industries. In the latter, firms compete in quality and the firms that they possibly outsource to compete in prices and quality, as well. However, it is the original firms' reputation that gets damaged if the outsourced product is lower in quality.

The first paper noted above is  Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Networks with Outsourcing Under Price and Quality Competition, Anna Nagurney, Dong Li, and Ladimer S. Nagurney, in press in the International Transactions in Operational Research. Here we assume that the original firms have perfect quality, whereas the firms that they outsource to compete on quality but they seek to maximize their profits.

The second paper is  A Supply Chain Network Game Theory Model with Product Differentiation, Outsourcing of Production and Distribution, and Quality and Price Competition, Anna Nagurney and Dong Li. In it, we propose both static and dynamic supply chain network game theory models, whose solution provides each original firm with its optimal in-house quality level as well as its optimal in-house and outsourced production and shipment quantities that minimize the total cost and the weighted cost of disrepute, associated with lower quality levels and the impact on a firm’s reputation. The algorithm that we propose and implement tracks the dynamic trajectories in discrete time of the evolution of the product flows, quality levels, and prices over space and time until the equilibrium state is achieved. We provide numerical examples that illustrate the model and computational framework.

Also, in our paper, A Dynamic Network Oligopoly Model with Transportation Costs, Product Differentiation, and Quality Competition, Anna Nagurney and Dong Li, in press  in Computational Economics, we developed a new dynamic model of Cournot-Nash oligopolistic competition that includes production and transportation costs, product differentiation, and quality levels in a network framework. The production costs capture the total quality cost, which, in turn, can also represent the R&D cost. With better R&D, firms may ensure that the consumers get the quality that they expect and deserve.

The above supply chain game theory models that we have constructed also allow for policy evaluations and the investigation of such a question as:  What if a government would impose a minimum quality standard for a type of product?

Pretty cool how game theory can illuminate so much in terms of operations in the real world!

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Summer Scenes from Old Deerfield and its Great Schools - The Bement School and Deerfield Academy

Yesterday, my daughter, who is a college student and is on a short break before returning to college, saw several of her friends from western Massachusetts with whom she had attended The Bement School in Old Deerfield.  First, they had dinner at the Thai restaurant in Greenfield and, then I suspect, got a bit nostalgic, and returned to Bement in the evening.

When she got back home I asked her whether she was happy that she had gone to school at both Bement (from kindergarten through 9th grade with graduation) and Deerfield Academy (10th through 12th with graduation) and she responded that immensely so.

Just last weekend, on a beautiful Sunday we drove to Deerfield and I took the photos below of  Bement, the historic Main Street, and Deerfield Academy.







At Bement, my daughter not only learned French and developed the love of reading and writing and art, as well as of science and math, but also learned how to skate, how to ski, and how to swim. Recesses were outdoors and physical ed could involve sleigh riding in the winter or hiking and sports in the spring. She also learned how to play field hockey which she continued to do when she "crossed the street" to matriculate at Deerfield Academy. There she had teachers that mesmerized, challenged, instructed, and that made a life-long impact. Both at Bement and at Deerfield Academy respect and kindness mattered as well as a sense of community and team spirit. Plus, she remembers fondly the wonderful meals served including the sit-down dinners.


It was also great to see that the Deerfield Inn had reopened after being devastated (along with neighboring farms, and other buildings and land) during and after Hurricane Irene and the once in a 500 years flood  two years ago. Both Bement and Deerfield Academy were affected by this natural disaster and through the resilience of their communities have recovered and are thriving.

This week, my daughter will be seeing friends from Deerfield Academy.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Is this a Scientific Guinness World Record -- Attendance at 50 Consecutive Annual Meetings of the Same Conference!

I don't think that Guinness in its compilation of World Records has a category for this achievement but perhaps it should.
In November, Professor David Boyce, who is both an INFORMS Fellow and an RSAI Fellow, will be attending his 50th consecutive North American Regional Science conference, which will take place in Atlanta, Georgia. His first such conference was in 1964! Walter Isard was the founder of Regional Science and he passed away in 2010 at age 91.
 
David reflected on his Fifty Years at the North American Regional Science Meetings (we are assuming that he will be there in Atlanta and 49 consecutive meetings is an achievement, as well). in an essay published in the NARSC newsletter in which he wrote:
I attended my first Meetings of the Regional Science Association in November 1964 at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. At the time I was a graduate student focused on my thesis research, and working full time on the side to support my expanding family. Through careful planning, and extraordinary good luck, I have not missed the North American Meetings since. If my luck continues to hold, I will attend my 50th consecutive North American Meetings next November in Atlanta.

I have wondered out loud to a few people what I might do to commemorate this event. The likely answer is nothing unusual: give a 20-minute talk, and say hello to the many colleagues I have met over the years, whose friendship I cherish. This invitation to write a few lines for the first newsletter of the North American Regional Science Council presents an unexpected opportunity to say more on this occasion that may interest younger readers, as well as remind some of my contemporaries about the meetings back then.


Given Professor Boyce's outstanding scientific contributions, his mentorship and advocacy of numerous students and professional colleagues, and his impact on transportation and regional science globally, I had to do something to honor this very special person.


So, I asked the Program Chair of the NARSC conference, Dr. Peter Stenberg, and its Executive Director, Dr. Neil Reid, whether I could organize a special session in honor of Professor Boyce, and they both agreed. The response was wonderful and below I have the information on the session, which will take place at the NARSC conference on Friday, November 15, 2013, from 10:30AM-12:30PM. And, if you see Professor Boyce, in the meantime, congratulate him on his stamina, dedication, and as, he even acknowledges, "luck."

Session: In Honor of Professor David E. Boyce – His 50th NARSC Conference – His Scholarship and Mentorship

Organizer: Anna Nagurney, John F. Smith Memorial Professor, Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts Amherst

Paper #1: Conventional Transportation Planning Models: Review and Prospects for Alternatives

Presenter: Tschangho John Kim, Endowed Professor Emeritus, Urban and Regional Systems, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; email: tjohnkim@illinois.edu

Paper #2: A Corridor-Centric Approach to Planning Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

Presenter: Marco Nie, Associate Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois; email: y-nie@northwestern.edu

Paper #3: David Boyce, RSAI Archivist

Presenter: Kieran Donaghy, Department Chair, Department of City & Regional Planning, Cornell University, Ithaca, NewYork; e-mail: kpd23@cornell.edu

Paper #4: Shrinking Global Population - a Futuristic Scenario or a Current Challenge 

Presenter: Hillel Bar-Gera, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev; email: bargera@bgu.ac.il

David Boyce has served as a faculty member at the University of Pennsylvania (1966-1977), the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (1977-1988), and the University of Illinois at Chicago (1988-2003). He is a Fellow of the Regional Science Association International (2002), the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (2003), and the American Society of Civil Engineers (2009), and is an Emeritus Member of the Transportation Networks Committee of the Transportation Research Board. He has published over 190 journal articles, books, book chapters and reports.

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Who is Reading and Ranking Your Child's College Admissions Applications?

As the new school year approaches, I can't help but think of the rising high school seniors, many of whom will be extra busy applying to colleges this year.

Since I live in the 5 college area (UMass Amherst, Amherst College, Hampshire College, Smith and Mount Holyoke colleges) and teach at UMass Amherst, I often see prospective students and their family members going on college tours.

The college admissions process has gotten very challenging, since the competition for places at U.S. colleges is international and the Common Application, which is done online, allows for a student to apply to multiple colleges with essentially the press of a button (and a fee) and, hence, there are many more applicants to highly selective colleges than even a decade ago.

According to recent data, reported on The New York Times Choice blog:

Applicant pools are growing larger; the University of Southern California received more than 47,000 applications this year. That’s 10,000 more students than just two years ago, when this year’s applicants were sophomores.

Colleges are also becoming more selective. The Ivy League reported an admit rate that dipped to 5.79 percent at Harvard this year. Stanford accepted 5.69 percent of its more than 38,800 applicants. The University of Chicago accepted only 8.8 percent of its more than 30,300 applicants.

So who is reading your child's college application with all those important essays that your child has labored over?

When a family is on its Great College Tour, where, by Friday, every campus starts to look alike and one almost feels that they could give the presentation better than the admissions officer, one statement stands out from these presentations: Each application is thoroughly read and analyzed by several persons from admissions who then make recommendations to the Admissions Director. The Director then, in a "highly emotional process," makes the final decision on admission.


Some of the Highs and Lows of My Sabbatical

The air is now cooler in New England, some of the leaves are starting to fall, and there is a crispness and excitement in the air about the beginning of the new academic school year.

This year I have been on sabbatical from the Isenberg School of Management at UMass Amherst and since school begins in less than a month and I have already started to revise my lectures it is a good time to take stock of what has been accomplished.

It has, all in all, been a truly fabulous year and I thank my colleagues for the wonderful collaborations and visits and memories. I hope that all the research and experiences will enrich my teaching this year and beyond.

Some of the Highs:

  • Being appointed a Visiting Professor of Operations Management (applied because of a job ad in The Economist, one of my favorite publications) at the School of Business, Economics and Law at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. Living and working in Sweden has led to numerous friendships and has deepened my research and scholarship. Thank you, thank you, thank you!
  • Being awarded the 2012 Walter Isard Award at the NARSC meeting in Ottawa, Canada last November. This honor and recognition for my research I will always treasure.
  • Truly special teaching experiences from teaching Supply Chain Network Theory and Operations Management at Gothenburg to giving a course on Humanitarian Logistics and Healthcare at the Vienna University of Economics and Business in March 2013. My former doctoral student, Professor Tina Wakolbinger, was one of my hosts there, which made the experience even more special. I learned an immense amount from the students, as well.
  • Having my book, Networks Against Time: Supply Chain Analytics for Perishable Products, co-authored with Professor Min Yu, Amir H. Masoumi, who received his PhD in May 2013 from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and is my 17th doctoral student to graduate, and Professor Ladimer S. Nagurney, my husband, published by Springer.
  • Organizing and moderating the Dynamics of Disasters Symposium at the AAAS meeting in Boston in February 2013 at which Professors Laura McLay, Panos M. Pardalos, Jose Holquin-Veras, Tina Wakolbinger, and David McLaughlin took part.
  • Working with a fabulous multiuniversity team of computer engineers and computer scientists on our NSF project, Innovation Through Choice, which has been selected as one of the 5 Future Internet . Architecture projects.  This project is supporting one of my two new female doctoral students in Management Science and this year we have had multiple paper acceptances -- very exciting!
  •  Giving invited seminars at Penn State Malvern, where I was hosted by another former doctoral student of mine, Dr. Patrick Qiang, at the University of Oklahoma, as part of its Dream Course initiative of President Boren, at UMass Amherst in its Computational Social Science Initiative, at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, and at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden. 
  •  Being invited and taking part in The New York Times Energy for Tomorrow Conference in NYC on April 25, 2013, where I spoke on the Transport and Traffic panel, moderated by New York Times columnist Joe Nocera. I also had the pleasure of being interviewed by Kirk Johnson of The New York Times on the failure of the CRC bridge project in Portland/Vancouver and one of my hosts in Sweden, Professor Jonas Floden, and I were interviewed by a journalist from San Francisco for SmartPlanet on Gothenburg's congestion pricing scheme. It is such a high to see your research in transportation and logistics getting recognized in the media and in practice! Just last week I was in NYC (I am at heart a New Yorker) and was interviewed by a curator at the Smithsonian's Cooper-Hewitt National Design Museum for a new exhibition that is in the works. I love talking about networks and how they impact our world!
  • Another  true highlight was giving a plenary talk at the Network Models in Economics and Finance Conference on Athens, Greece in June 2013, where I spoke on Network Economics and the Internet. Just prior to traveling to Athens, I had the honor and pleasure of giving the graduate  commencement speech at the School of Business, Economics and Law in Gothenburg. My theme this year was On Great Leadership. I guess they liked my commencement speech last year,which was on Life as a Network!
  • Another high was being asked by the Editor of ITOR (International Transactions in Operational Research), Professor Celso Ribeiro of Brazil, to identify several female scholars to add to the editorial bard of this journal. Marvelous to have male colleagues recognize the importance of diversity on journal editorial boards and both of my recommendations are now new Associate Editors!
  •  Being invited, and taking part, in the UMass Amherst Rising Gala to mark the 150th birthday of UMass Amherst! How often does one get to meet a female astronaut, Cady Coleman, who received her PhD from UMass Amherst, and to listen to Ken Feinberg, another UMass Amherst alum,  whose outstanding work on victim compensation from 9/11 to the Boston Marathon bombings through One Fund Boston is well-recognized. Both Cady and Ken were masters of ceremonies of this memorable evening.
  • Having the Nagurney Scholarship been made official. I believe that one should give back -- whether to the schools that have educated you and your family members or the colleges and universities that have employed you. Sometime next year the first recipient, which will be an Operations Management major at the Isenberg School, should receive this scholarship. Thanks to those at the Isenberg School and UMass Amherst that supported this and somehow we managed to get the paperwork through while I was in Sweden! 
 Some of the Lows:
  • Those of us who live in the Northeast of the US have had another tough year in terms of natural and other disasters, from Superstorm Sandy to the Boston Marathon bombings. Our resilience and strength have been challenged and we take support from our communities.
  • This year I lost not only two dear neighbors on our street in Amherst, Mrs. Judith Todd and Mr. Bruce Oldershaw, but also my absolutely favorite uncle and one of my greatest fans, Stanley E. Jarosz. My uncle passed away on February 13, 2013 at age 93. He was still working in Manhattan at age 92 designing bridges. Below is a list of a few of his achievements highlighted in his obituary:


In 2001, Stanley was honored with the prestigious “Roebling Award” from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) NY Metropolitan Section for his lifetime achievement in the field of Bridge Engineering.  He was deeply grateful to his colleagues at Gandhi Engineering for their nomination to this prestigious award.


His most notable accomplishment was the design of the Hale Boggs Bridge (I-310), the first-major cable-stayed bridge in the US, spanning the Mississippi River at Luling, LA.  The Boggs Bridge, with its then record-breaking span and steel towers, won the ASCE Outstanding Civil Engineering Achievement Award for 1984. The aerodynamic design of the welded orthotropic deck of the bridge was awarded the Lincoln Arc Welding Foundation 1984 First Prize.


Between 1983 and 1987, Stanley was responsible for the emergency engineering, redesign and replacement of the fallen Mianus River Bridge on I-95 in Greenwich, CT.  This undertaking precipitated the formulation of the nationwide infrastructure renovation program, which continues to this day.  


Other notable designs and projects include the I-195 Braga Bridge in Fall River, MA, the Tennessee River Bridge in Pittsburg, TN, the 13th Street Bridge over the Ohio River in Ashland, Ohio and the replacement of the City Island Bridge over Eastchester Bay, Bronx, NY with a cable-stayed structure.


He also served on the 6 - member international panel of experts selected by Massachusetts Highway Department and the FHWA to review the proposed Charles River Bridge designs in conjunction with the Central Artery/Tunnel Project in Boston, Massachusetts.


He took great joy in his private pilot’s license, which he obtained in fulfillment of a childhood dream.  A self taught musician, he played the viola, piano and mandolin and enjoyed chamber music concerts, the opera and the ballet.  He loved learning languages (late in life he read Dante's trilogy in Italian), as well as the fellowship of his engineering colleagues, with whom he delighted sharing his love of great food, wine and the occasional off-color story.

With a new academic year on the horizon, I wonder what will this year will bring?




Friday, August 2, 2013

Vulnerability and Resilience of Supply Chains

Resilience is a theme that resonates among researchers, practitioners, and policy-makers. Michael Batty, in his editorial,  Resilient cities, networks, and disruption,  in the latest issue of Environmental & Planning B, argues that: Resilience is a more precise term than sustainability and, although it has some rather ill-defined properties, resilience can be defined relatively unambiguously, making it somewhateasier to apply to complex systems like cities.

I would argue that sustainability is a key building block of resiliency whether it comes to cities or supply chains, which span our globe and, interestingly, my paper, "Design of sustainable supply chains for sustainable cities," is now in press in Environment & Planning B.

I have written a lot on network vulnerability, including that of supply chains, as well as robustness and synergies associated with partnerships and teaming and even mergers and acquisitions. So, when the invitation to attend the ETH Risk Center Workshop on Vulnerability and Resilience of Supply Chains -- see information below came -- I was very intrigued and accepted to speak.

I am honored to be in such a great lineup and I am sure that there will be many stimulating presentations and discussion!

The talk that I am preparing for this workshop is: Networks Against Time: From Food to Pharma. I will discuss some o fthe major methodologies, models, and applications in our latest book Networks Against Time: Supply Chain Analytics for Perishable Products.

Hope that some of you can join us in Zurich, Switzerland for the workshop next month! 

Risk Center: Vulnerability and resilience of supply chains

Workshop 2013 - ETH Risk Center: Vulnerability and resilience of supply chains

ETH Zurich (Switzerland), September 12-13, 2013

Topics

  • Supply chains as economic networks and “critical infrastructures”
  • Response to external shocks and inherent instabilities
  • Risk reduction, disaster response management, and insurance issues
The following questions will be addressed:
  • What kinds of hazards are there? What are the challenges?
  • What does the interaction of regulators and the industry look like during a critical event?
  • What are the critical parts in supply chains seen from the different perspectives? How can one identify them, what could be improved?

Speakers

Program

The workshop will run for two days, with an evening dinner cruise on Lake Zurich after the first day. Two sessions each day will consist of talks by invited speakers and there will be a panel discussion at the end of each day.

Poster session

The poster session offers an opportunity for an interactive presentation of your work.
If you want to present a poster, please submit a pdf file of it (max. 5 megabytes) to info-riskcenter@ethz.ch. The best posters will be selected for the poster exhibition by the program committee. The submission deadline is July 31.

Registration

Please click here for your registration to the workshop. There is a participation fee of 200 CHF. Note: The number of participants is limited.

Organizing Committee

Organizing Team

The workshop is sponsored by the ETH Risk Center and the Zurich Insurance Group.
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