60 Years of Urban Travel Forecasting - Traffic Continues to Fascinate

It is hard to miss all the recent news about transportation and traffic,  including the (in)famous so-called "traffic study" in New Jersey that closed lanes, which, in turn,  resulted in huge traffic jams on the George Washington bridge connecting the state of New Jersey with New York, lasting 4 days, and which has now even made international news as reported by the BBC.   The lane closures, it  seems, were instrumented under the guise of studying traffic flows, but, in reality, it is being alleged, they  were to punish the mayor of Fort Lee for "misallegiance." The scandal has even damaged the reputation and standing of the governor of New Jersey, Mr.  Christie,  a potential candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

Who would have thought that traffic mis(management) could be a political weapon or even the downfall of government officials?!

Travel forecasting, that our New Jersey "leaders" might have benefited from, has actually been studied for over 60 years!

And, there is a new book being written, a U.S. - U.K. collaboration between Professors David E. Boyce and Huw Williams, which, I am told, is nearing completion on this very topic. I was contacted by Professor Boyce a few weeks ago to review Chapter 7 of the book, which, I believe, will be published by Edward Elgar Publishing, and should be about 700 pages! Chapter 7 is on Transportation Network Equilibrium, a topic very near and dear to me. What I especially like about this chapter (and book) is the tracing of the intellectual history of the various discoveries in terms of mathematical model building and algorithms, coupled with tensions between academics and practitioners, in a sense, in that the former want to get the latest advances into practice as soon as possible with many challenges along the way.

Professor Boyce is a great colleague and mentor, and renowned in transportation circles, having received  the Robert Herman Lifetime Achievement Award in Transportation Science. He is also an INFORMS Fellow and an RSAI Fellow. I have not (yet) met his co-author,  Professor Huw Williams, although I know of his work. Last Fall, Boyce gave the talk, Urban Travel Forecasting: A 60 Year Retrospective, at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Sweden, and  he gave me permission to post it on the Virtual Center for Supernetworks website, since I found it so fascinating. He has been periodically, as time passes, updating this talk.

You can access his presentation, in pdf format, here.

Seeing photos of such luminaries as Martin Beckmann, Dan McFadden at the Nobel ceremonies with Moshe Ben-Akiva,  John Wardrop, plus Michael Florian in the slides (with a surprise photo of Suzanne Evans and me), was a great trip in nostalgia. And, I also enjoyed David Boyce's great sense of humor as the two slides below, taken from his talk, reveal.

And, for all those researchers and practitioners out there in operations research, and transportation science, see what remains to be done below!

And for a musical rendition of the New Jersey traffic jam,  enjoy the video with Bruce Springsteen and Jimmy Fallon below.
http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/bruce-springsteen-and-jimmy-fallon-gov-christie-traffic-jam-born-to-run-parody/n45079/

Logistics Behind Scheduling Speakers for My Humanitarian Logistics Class

Having speakers come to campus is always a highlight and I have written a blogpost on "Tips for Organizing a Successful Speaker Series," which is one of my most popular ones.

Guest speakers also add tremendous value to a course!

This semester, I am offering, for the second time at UMass Amherst, a course on Humanitarian Logistics and Healthcare, with the syllabus available here. The course  has attracted students from the Isenberg School of Management, the School of Public Health, and the College of Engineering. One of the highlights of the course is the speakers that come to share their experiences with our students.

But, of course, scheduling speakers is a logistical exercise, because not only is it important to have them come when it makes sense in the course curriculum, but also practitioners in the space of disaster preparedness and emergency response are very busy people!

I am absolutely delighted that, in February, the students in my class will have the opportunity to hear from 4 experts: the new Director of Emergency Preparedness and Business Continuity at UMass Amherst, the Executive Director of the Red Cross of the Pioneer Valley,  a renowned doctor from the University Health Services who has done relief work in Haiti, post the devastating earthquake,  and also saved lives at the Boston Marathon bombing on April 15, 2013, as well as a top TV anchor from western Massachusetts!

The positive response to my invitations has been overwhelming and the speakers have agreed, despite scheduled surgeries, and other professional and personal obligations, to share their knowledge and wisdom with students.

One of my greatest challenges in terms of bringing speakers together (all at the same time) was the Humanitarian Logistics: Networks for Africa Workshop that I organized on behalf of the Rockefeller Foundation's Bellagio Center program back in May 2008. This workshop, which took place at the Rockefeller Foundation's Bellagio Center on Lake Como in Italy,  was (unplanned) situated between two major disasters:  Cyclone Nargis that  hit Myanmar/Burma and the Sichuan earthquake in China.

 

This workshop was one of the most stimulating workshops that I have had the honor to be part of with experts from academia (from 3 continents),  practitioners from the UN and CSIRO, and humanitarian logisticians with amazing experiences from the field! My final report on the workshop to the Rockefeller Foundation is available here.

I will be sharing what we learn from the  outstanding speakers in my Humanitarian Logistics and Healthcare class. At this point, I want to acknowledge them and to thank them for taking the time out of their extremely busy schedules to come to the Isenberg School to share their vast knowledge and experiences on various aspects of emergency preparedness and response.

I asked my students yesterday the  question: "Whom Have You Helped?" and told them that one of the themes of the professional society INFORMS (Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences) that I belong to and have benefited from greatly is Doing Good with Good O.R. (Operations Research).

A great question to answer and live by every day: "Whom Have You Helped?"

Two Great Upcoming Events at the Isenberg School - Not for Women Only

The weather outside is frigid but there is a lot of energy and warmth around indoors with the beginning of the new academic semester.

I have been more than busy since I am teaching two classes that I am very excited about and am also serving on a search committee for a faculty position in Systems Engineering. It is always fascinating to hear faculty candidates present their research! I've been bringing my doctoral students to these "job" talks since one can learn a lot from them.

At the Isenberg School we have two upcoming events, which are not for women only.

On Saturday, February 8th, in our lovely Isenberg atrium, the Inaugural Women in Business Isenberg conference is taking place. It is being organized by the Isenberg Women in Business Society. More information is available here.  I am especially delighted that Christina Calvaneso will be coming back and will be a panelist. Christina worked as a Student Center Associate at the Virtual Center for Supernetworks that I founded and did such a great job that I nominated her for a Leaders of the 21st Century Award, which she received from UMass upon graduation. Her area of concentration was Operations Management.

Also, on February 14th, which is Valentine's Day, the UMass Amherst INFORMS Student Chapter and I  will be hosting Dr. Laurie Garrow of Georgia Tech in our UMass Amherst INFORMS Speakers Series. The notice is below.

 

 More information on Dr. Garrow can be found here. Come join us for refreshments at 10:30AM preceding Dr. Garrow's presentation at Isenberg Room 108.

Stay warm!

How Was Your First Day of Classes?

I very much like the rhythm of the academic life with semesters supporting the year and with class schedules.

Yesterday, was the first day of the new "Spring" 2014 semester at UMass Amherst and  a pending snowstorm hitting the northeast of the U.S. added to the excitement (spoiler - no cancellations in our area today).

I was so surprised and pleased to see several of my Operations & Information Management majors stop by to say "hello", who had taken by Logistics & Transportation class last semester, and who had fulfilled their graduation requirements. It is always great to see former students!

Yesterday, I had a busy first day of classes, beginning in the morning with my Humanitarian Logistics & Healthcare class and, in the afternoon, my Management Science Seminar, which this year is focusing on Variational Inequalities, Networks, and Game Theory.

Yesterday was also my daughter's birthday and somehow she made it, after a long flight to Newark from Hawaii, where she had taken an intensive science course, via Amtrak to New Haven, from where she then got a ride (there were many upset passengers at the New Haven train station since an Acela from Boston had broken down). She said that she was going to make it home even if she had to walk. I had visions of Steve Martin's movie, "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles."

And, yesterday, January 21, one of my former doctoral students, who is now a professor, celebrated the birth of his first child with his wife, a daughter (and I predicted the day).

This will be a very exciting semester!

With best wishes to everyone on all of your endeavors.

Operations Researchers and the World Economic Forum in Davos

The 2014 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting takes place this week in Davos, Switzerland, January 22-25.

The theme this year is The Reshaping of the World: Consequences for Society, Politics and Business.

It's always interesting to see who will be coming to Davos from heads of state, to executives, to various thought leaders, academics, and humanitarians.

Just like one of my favorite professional societies, INFORMS (Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences), the World Economic Form (WEF) also has Communities. 

I am very pleased that operations researchers are represented in two of the communities that  I am familiar with. Interestingly, I could identify 3 WEF individuals who are operations researchers and they are all in transportation & logistics!  If any of my readers know of other operations researchers, please let me know -- thanks!

Serving on the  Global Agenda Council  for Logistics and Supply Chain Systems are: Dr. Yossi Sheffi of MIT and Dr. Hugh Donald "Don"  Ratliff of Georgia Tech. I had last seen Yossi in Zurich, Switzerland, when we both were invited speakers at the great Vulnerability and Supply Chain Resilience Workshop  in September 2013. The workshop organizing committee is below

Organizing Committee

• Dirk Helbing (ETH Zurich) 
• Wolfgang Kröger (ETH Zurich)
• Benno Keller (Zurich Insurance Company)

and Dr. Dirk Helbing is also on the WEF Global Agenda Council! It is not far from Zurich to Davos!

You can find all the WEF global agenda council members here (alphabetized, for some reason, by their first names).

The World Economic Forum in January 2013 produced a nice report on Building Resilience in Supply Chains , in collaboration with Accenture. In it, you will see not only Yossi Sheffi's name  but also Dr. Jose Holquin-Veras' of RPI. We hosted Dr. Holguin-Veras in our UMass Amherst INFORMS Speaker Series at the Isenberg School and I last saw him in Gothenburg, Sweden, where I hold a Visiting Professorship at the University of Gothenburg. He also was a panelist with Dr. Laura McLay, Dr. Panos M.  Pardalos, Dr. Tina Wakolbinger, and Dr. David McLaughlin at the Dynamics of Disasters symposium last February that  I organized in Boston for the AAAS Annual Meeting.


Another World Economic Forum community is that of the Forum of Young Global Leaders and, among the group selected in 2013, is Dr. Soulaymane Kachani, who is originally from Morocco. He received both his Master's and PhD in Operations Research from MIT. I am a bit biased since his dissertation advisor was Dr. Georgia Perakis, who is technically my "academic sister," since she was a PhD student at Brown University working for Stella Dafermos (who was my advisor there, too) but then Stella died, so Dr. Tom Magnanti of MIT helped her to complete her PhD. Her PhD is from Brown.


Dr. Kachani is now a Vice Dean at Columbia and is in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research. Columbia had issued this nice press release on his participation in the WEF. He is a great choice. He was my host when I spoke at Columbia, in September 2006. I gave a seminar ther on Dynamic Networks  in the  Industrial Engineering and Operations Research and Decision Science, Risk and Operations Series.

You can nominate a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader for 2014 here.

Isn't it great to have operations researchers on the world stage?!

Best of luck to everyone at the WEF in Davos.

The Braess Paradox is Back and in New Scientist

This week I received a message from none other than Professor Dietrich Braess after whom the (in)famous paradox is named -- wherein adding a route to a transportation network can make the commute for all travelers longer! (Or, removing a road can get you to work faster!)

I am a big fan of Professor Braess' work and his paradox paper, which was written in German and published in 1968. I not only wrote about it in my doctoral dissertation, but have enjoyed building upon it  since.

Plus, I had the distinct honor, along with my doctoral students and the UMass Amherst INFORMS Student Chapter, of hosting Professor Braess' first visit to the U.S., back in April 2006, to speak specifically on his paradox.  In addition, we were celebrating the translation of his paper from German to English, which Braess and I did, along with my doctoral student from Austria, Tina Wakolbinger, who is now a Full Professor in Vienna. The translation was published in the INFORMS journal, Transportation Science, along with a preface, written by Professor David E. Boyce and me. 


The photos of Braess below were taken at the Isenberg School and at the University Club.

 

The photo immediately above was taken in my Supernetworks Lab at the Isenberg School. Professor Braess, Tina, and I are holding our translation in Transportation Science. Additional photos as well as a link to Professor Braess' presentation can be found on this page.

Professor Braess wrote me that New Scientist was writing a story on the paradox, which has just appeared and is by Justin Mullins. It is entitled: "42nd St paradox: Cull the best to make things better" and a preview is here.  I managed to access a copy, although the official publication date is not until January 18, 2014.  The article also notes Skinner's work vis a vis basketball and the Braess paradox, which I spoke about in the PBS America Revealed segment Gridlock (a great experience to be interviewed by the winner of Survivor in 2006, Yul Kwon!) and have written about on this blog.  New Scientist also mentioned Professor Adilson Motter of Northwestern University, who led the recent Network Frontiers Workshop in December that I spoke at on Envisioning a Future Internet.Architecture.

Motter is quoted in  the New Scientist article on his ecology work (networks are everywhere!):  In certain circumstances,  the early removal of a species that would otherwise eventually go extinct anyway can prevent all secondary extinctions and improve the entire system's viability. That's an analogue of Braess's paradox, says Motter. 

The New Scientist article also talks about Professor Dirk Witthaut's work on the electric grid and concludes:  It is very early days in our understanding of biological networks. But if Motter, Witthaut and others have their way, counter-intuitive network effects may have a much more significant role to play in future. It may even be the key that helps the Knicks to another NBA play-off, and perhaps even reunites them with the championship trophy that has long eluded them.

And speaking of the Braess paradox, I have posted below a link to the video captured at the great UMASS Amherst TEDx event at which I spoke on The Traffic Circle of Life and, of course, the Braess paradox!


Anna Nagurney from TEDxUMassAmherst on Vimeo.

The lecture slides can be downloaded here.

Welcome Back, Coach Mark Whipple, to UMass Amherst Football!

I watched the press conference, with great speeches by the President of UMass, Dr. Robert Caret,  the Head of the UMass Board of Trustees, Henry M. Thomas III, followed by the introduction of the "new" UMass Amherst football coach, Mark Whipple, by our Athletic Director, John McCutcheon.

I do follow sports, which are a marvelous diversion at this time of the year in New England (with great basketball, hockey, and even the figure skating championships in Boston recently). I also needed a break from working very intently on my course lectures for two courses that I will be teaching at the Isenberg School of Management, with the new semester beginning on January 21!

What Mark Whipple said in such a heart-felt manner, moved me so much, that I had to comment.

First, Mark Whipple is a Brown University alum (as am I) so I am a bit biased.

Second, Mark led UMass Amherst, when it was in a different conference, to a national championship and has had a fabulous career since with stints in the NFL and elsewhere.

Whipple began his press conference today with tears in his eyes and was literally choked up. This was truly moving.

He stated that sometimes you have to leave to find out where your home was, and, by this, he meant, UMass Amherst.

He said, which I loved: "I am a teacher. I am an educator." He wants to impart his wisdom to the players, which he certainly will, given his wealth of experiences in collegiate and professional football!

He noted that college football is a "people's business" and that "it's all about the people. It's all about the players." He thanked his wife and his two sons and noted that coming back to UMass was a family decision.

He emphasized what collegiate sports contribute to education and to athletes. I truly believe in the value of collegiate sports in terms of building discipline, organizational skills, and fitness. Back in my Brown University days, I ran on the Women's Track and Field and Cross-Country teams.

Mark Whipple noted, in his press conference, that he "loves jewelry," which means those championship rings which he has a box full of.

Mark Whipple said that "everything moves forward" and "Go, UMass!"

UMass Amherst is "Back to the Future" and we wish Mark Whipple all the very best and thanks!

Welcome home, Mark Whipple!