My Talk at the Managing Disaster Risk: A Way to Sustainability Workshop in Nepal

This past week I had the pleasure of speaking at the Managing Disaster Risk: A Way to Sustainability Workshop organized by NEGAAS (Nepal Germany Academic Association). Speakers and participants joined virtually from multiple continents. 

My presentation was entitled, “Labor and Supply Chain Networks: Insights from Models Inspired by the COVID-19 Pandemic.” 

After a very warm introduction and welcome by Professor Tanka Nath Dhamala, I thanked him and co-organizer Professor Urmila Pyakurel, as well as Er. Ravi Khanal and the Nepal German Academic Association (NEGAAS) and its Program on Migration and Diaspora for the invitation to speak.

In my presentation,  I first emphasized that the COVID-19 pandemic is a healthcare disaster that unlike, natural disasters, even those exacerbated by climate change, is not limited to time and space and has affected virtually the entire globe. I spoke about research on perishable and time-sensitive supply chain networks that I had done with collaborators even before the pandemic that enabled us to pivot to produce relevant research in the pandemic. Among the applications of such supply chains are: food supply chains as well as pharmaceutical and vaccine ones. Such supply chains were especially impacted in the pandemic. 

I discussed a stream of publications that I had published in the pandemic on mathematical models, both optimization and game theory ones, that include labor as a critical resource in supply chains, along with labor availability and productivity. I first discussed, at a high level, the food supply chain network model introduced in Nagurney (2021a), in which there are bounds on labor associated with supply chain network economic links of production, transportation, storage, and distribution using a generalized network optimization framework to capture food product perishability. 

I then (cf. Nagurney (2021b) highlighted another optimization model in which there are distinct sets of bounds on labor - on links, or on a tier of supply chain activity, or on the entire supply chain network. Finally, I discussed a model and results in Nagurney (2021c), where a game theory model with multiple competing firms under various labor constraints are engaged in competition under profit-maximizing behavior. The governing concept in the case of bounds on labor on links is that of Nash Equilibrium, whereas in the case of the two other sets of constraints, in which the firms compete for labor (a reality in the pandemic), the concept is that of a Generalized Nash Equilibrium. Highlights of a case study on blueberries and migrant labor, which has suffered in the pandemic, was also presented.  This paper, published in the European Journal of Operational Research was recognized by a 2021 Editor's Choice Award.

In my talk, I also noted that it is important that firms pay laborers the wages that they deserve and this can actually give them a competitive advantage (cf. Nagurney (2021d)). I  further noted the benefits of cooperation, from a study (see Nagurney and Qiang (2020)), in which synergies associated with the teaming of humanitarian organizations in disaster response can be quantified. 

In my presentation, I emphasized the importance of research and publishing on disaster management but also the need to get the research out to the public. I noted the benefits of writing OpEds and speaking with the media as well as in working with legislators to effect positive change. Below are just some of the media that I have been interviewed for in the pandemic.

I concluded my presentation by describing how work on blood supply chains that I had written about in The Conversation has impacted  national policy in the US in the pandemic.

I very much appreciated the thoughtful comments and questions after my presentation.

The full slide deck of my presentation can be downloaded here.

References

Nagurney, A., 2021a. Perishable food supply chain networks with labor in the Covid-19 pandemic. In: Dynamics of Disasters - Impact, Risk, Resilience, and Solutions. I.S. Kotsireas, A. Nagurney, P.M. Pardalos, and A. Tsokas, Editors, Springer Nature Switzerland AG, pp 173-193. 

Nagurney, A., 2021b. Optimization of supply chain networks with the inclusion of labor: Applications to Covid-19 pandemic disruptions. International Journal of Production Economics, 235, 108080.

Nagurney, A., 2021c. Supply chain game theory network modeling under labor constraints: Applications to the Covid-19 pandemic. European Journal of Operational Research, 293(3), 880-891.

Nagurney, A., 2021d. Wage-dependent labor and supply chain networks in the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. In press in: Analysis, Geometry, Nonlinear Optimization and Applications, P.M. Pardalos and T.M. Rassias, Editors, World Scientific Publishing, Singapore. 

Nagurney, A., Qiang, Q., 2020. Quantifying supply chain network synergy for humanitarian organizations. IBM Journal of Research and Development, 64(1/2), pp 12:1-12:16.

The program of the workshop can be viewed below.

The ideas generated at this workshop were fabulous and. A big plus was the mix of academics, practitioners, and representatives from government, which made for meaningful conversations.

Disaster Relief - It's About Time

I have been busy co-organizing the 2nd International Conference on Dynamics of Disasters with my great colleagues, Professor Panos M. Pardalos of the University of Florida and Professor Ilias Kotsireas of Wilfrid Laurier University.

I've also been hard at work finishing up our paper for this conference, which takes place in Kalamata, Greece, at the end of June, and  grading the fascinating project papers of the students in my Humanitarian Logistics and Healthcare class.

Nice when your research is synergistic with your teaching!

The conference website now contains the program (to-date)  with confirmed speakers from many countries.

I have been completely engrossed in writing this paper, given the events in Nepal, post the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck in April.   One wants to help in any way possible and we have given a financial donation and, as as academics, we can certainly help through our research.

The title of the paper that I will be presenting at the conference is: "A Mean-Variance Disaster Relief Supply Chain Network Model for Risk Reduction with Stochastic Link Costs, Time Targets, and Demand Uncertainty."

This paper builds upon our earlier work in supply chain risk reduction (but in a corporate setting): Risk Reduction and Cost Synergy in Mergers and Acquisitions via Supply Chain Network Integration, Zugang Liu and Anna Nagurney, Journal of Financial Decision Making 7(2): (2011) pp 1-18, and our paper,  An Integrated Disaster Relief Supply Chain Network Model with Time Targets and Demand Uncertainty, Anna Nagurney, Amir H. Masoumi, and Min Yu, in Regional Science Matters: Studies Dedicated to Walter Isard, P. Nijkamp, A. Rose, and K. Kourtit, Editors, Springer International Publishing Switzerland (2015), pp 287-318.

Disaster relief is truly about time and models must incorporate the critical time dimension as ours do. For example, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has identified key benchmarks to response and recovery, which emphasize time and  they are: to meet the survivors’ initial demands within 72 hours, to restore basic community functionality within 60 days, and to return to as normal of a situation within 5 years. Timely and efficient delivery of relief supplies to the affected population not only decreases the fatality rate but may also prevent chaos.


There can be delays on any of the links in a disaster relief supply chain network and The New York Times on Monday, in an article  by Gardiner Harris, "Nepal's Bureaucracy Blamed as Quake Relief Supplies Pile Up," notes that:  Relief supplies for earthquake victims have been piling up at the airport and in warehouses here because of bureaucratic interference by Nepalese authorities who insist that standard customs inspections and other procedures be followed, even in an emergency, officials with Western governments and aid organizations said on Sunday. 


The article  continues with: The bottleneck was the fact that the bureaucratic procedures were just so heavy,” Jamie McGoldrick, the United Nations resident coordinator, said in an interview. “So many layers of government and so many departments involved, so many different line ministries involved. We don’t need goods sitting in Kathmandu warehouses. We don’t need goods sitting at the airport. We need them up in the affected areas.

We do  the following in our paper:  We develop a mean-variance disaster relief supply chain network model with stochastic link costs and time targets for delivery of the relief supplies at the demand points, under demand uncertainty. The humanitarian organization seeks to minimize its expected total operational costs and the total risk in operations with an individual weight assigned to its valuation of the risk, as well as the minimization of expected costs of shortages and surpluses and tardiness penalties associated with the target time goals at the demand points.


The risk is captured through the variance of the total operational costs, which is relevant to the reporting of the proper use of funds to stakeholders, including donors. The time goal targets associated with the demand points enable prioritization as to the timely delivery of relief supplies. The framework handles both the pre-positioning of relief supplies, whether local or nonlocal, as well as the procurement (local or nonlocal), transport, and distribution of supplies post-disaster. The time element is captured through link time completion functions as the relief supplies progress along paths in the supply chain network. Each path consists of a series of directed links, from the origin node, which represents the humanitarian organization, to the destination nodes, which are the demand points for the relief supplies.

We propose an algorithm, which yields closed form expressions for the variables at each iteration, and demonstrate the efficacy of the framework through a series of illustrative numerical examples, in which trade-offs between local versus nonlocal procurement, post- and pre-disaster, are investigated. The numerical examples include a case study on hurricanes hitting Mexico.

UMass Amherst has a nice release on this conference  and the University of Florida had this writeup posted a while back. 

I look forward to presenting our paper at the International Conference on Dynamics of Disasters. The topic is certainly so relevant and even NSF just released a big press release on 6 projects that it has funded, jointly with Japan, on Big Data and disaster response.